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Tariffs

Shipping Industry Braces for "Whipsaw" in Demand Amid US-China Trade War Ceasefire

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As a 90-day ceasefire in the US-China trade war kicks in, ports and shipping lines are preparing for a surge in demand as businesses rush to stockpile goods for Black Friday and Christmas. Analysts predict a massive drop in container ship bookings from China to the US, followed by a rapid surge in imports that will test port handling capacity. The sudden shift in demand will require logistics companies and shipping lines to quickly adapt to meet the increased volume, potentially leading to equipment shortages and delays.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 90-day ceasefire in the US-China trade war will lead to a massive drop in container ship bookings from China to the US, followed by a rapid surge in imports, causing a "whipsaw" effect in demand.
  • Freightos expects a period of tight capacity and equipment shortages as shipping lines and ports try to manage the sudden increase in volumes.
  • US retailers are expected to pull orders forward to beat the potential expiry of the truce on August 10, which could lead to increased container rates and delays.
  • The effects of the tariff cut will take time to show up in data, with ships taking about four to six weeks to reach the US.
  • A wave of cancelled freight bookings in April resulted in almost 400,000 fewer containers booked on Asia-to-North America routes during the four weeks from May 5, according to Sea-Intelligence.
  • The US National Retail Federation had forecast a 20% year-on-year fall in container shipments to the US from China between June and September.
  • Freightos forecasts shipping rates will remain below last year's high season rates of $8,000 per 40ft equivalent container to the US west coast, and more than $9,800 to the east coast.
  • Despite the tariff cut, shipping rates are expected to increase due to regular seasonal fluctuations and competition from new carrier alliances.
  • The full impact of the 90-day truce remains difficult to predict, given the continued higher tariff rates on Chinese imports.

Statistics:

  • 90 days: duration of the ceasefire in the US-China trade war.
  • 145%: headline US tariff rate on Chinese imports before the ceasefire.
  • 30%: headline US tariff rate on Chinese imports during the ceasefire.
  • 400,000: reduction in container bookings on Asia-to-North America routes during the four weeks from May 5, according to Sea-Intelligence.
  • 20%: forecast year-on-year fall in container shipments to the US from China between June and September, according to the US National Retail Federation.
  • $8,000: last year's high season rates per 40ft equivalent container to the US west coast.
  • $9,800: last year's high season rates per 40ft equivalent container to the US east coast.
  • 11%: increase in US import volumes between November 2024 and April 2025 compared with a year previously, according to National Retail Federation data.

Sources:

  • Freightos
  • Vespucci Maritime consultancy
  • Sea-Intelligence
  • US National Retail Federation
  • Sea Intelligence

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