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South Korea's Presidential Election: Lee Jae-myung Takes the Lead

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

South Korea is on the cusp of its presidential election, with Lee Jae-myung from the Democratic Party leading in recent opinion polls. According to a Gallup Korea survey, Lee Jae-myung has a 49% approval rate, while Kim Moon-soo of the ruling People Power Party trails behind with 35%. The gap has narrowed significantly, from 22% points on May 15. Seoul-based consultancy Hankook Research also released a poll, showing 45% of respondents supporting Lee Jae-myung, compared to 36% for Kim Moon-soo.

Key Takeaways:

  • Lee Jae-myung leads in the presidential election with a 49% approval rate, according to a Gallup Korea survey of 1,004 people.
  • Kim Moon-soo, the ruling People Power Party candidate, trails behind with a 35% approval rate, a significant reduction from the 22% point gap on May 15.
  • Lee Jun-seok, the minor opposition Reform Party candidate, has 10% support in Hankook Research's poll of 1,000 respondents.
  • If Lee Jun-seok drops out in support of Kim Moon-soo, the competition is expected to tighten, with a 44% vote for Lee Jae-myung and 41% for Kim Moon-soo, according to Hankook Research.
  • Lee Jae-myung is expected to win by 5 to 10% points in a three-way race, according to political commentator Choi Soo-young.
  • The martial law declaration of former President Yoon Suk-yeol and his subsequent impeachment are key issues for voters in the presidential election.

Statistics:

  • 49%: Lee Jae-myung's approval rate, according to Gallup Korea.
  • 35%: Kim Moon-soo's approval rate, according to Gallup Korea.
  • 22%: Final margin between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo on May 15, according to Gallup Korea.
  • 45%: Support for Lee Jae-myung, according to Hankook Research's poll of 1,000 respondents.
  • 36%: Support for Kim Moon-soo, according to Hankook Research's poll of 1,000 respondents.
  • 10%: Support for Lee Jun-seok, according to Hankook Research's poll of 1,000 respondents.
  • 44%: Vote for Lee Jae-myung, in a scenario where Lee Jun-seok supports Kim Moon-soo, according to Hankook Research.
  • 41%: Vote for Kim Moon-soo, in a scenario where Lee Jun-seok supports him, according to Hankook Research.
  • 5-10%: Expected margin of victory for Lee Jae-myung in a three-way race, according to political commentator Choi Soo-young.

Sources:

  • Gallup Korea
  • Hankook Research
  • UPI (May 28)

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