Sign in Subscribe
Food supply

Southern Africa Sees Improvement in Food Security Amid Cooler Weather and Improved Harvests

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the impact of the 2023/24 El Niño event recedes in southern Africa, several countries in the region have seen a significant improvement in their harvests, leading to the removal of tens of millions of people from the UN's Hunger Hotspot list. This development is expected to blunt the twin blades of hunger and food inflation, lifting growth in economies that rely heavily on agriculture.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have removed Ethiopia, Kenya, Lebanon, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Zambia, and Zimbabwe from the Hunger Hotspots list due to improved harvest conditions.
  • Zambia is expected to produce more than 3.6 million tonnes of maize this season, more than double last year's stunted 1.5 million tonnes, making it a record harvest.
  • Other countries in the region, including South Africa, have also seen a rebound in their maize yields, with South Africa's maize crop this year being more than 14% higher than last year.
  • The futures price for South African white maize has fallen from record territory of more than R5,400 a tonne in January to about R4,700 a tonne, a drop of 13%, which will contain retail prices for the caloric staple.
  • The removal of countries from the Hunger Hotspots list is a welcome development for southern Africa, but the FAO and WFP warn that these gains remain fragile and could reverse quickly if shocks re-emerge.
  • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is currently in the neutral phase, with no El Niño event expected this year, allowing for better climatic conditions for harvests.
  • However, the report also contains ill tidings, with continued concerns for Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali due to intensifying or persisting conflict, economic shocks, and natural hazards.
  • The Democratic Republic of Congo has been reintroduced to the hotspot list due to its intensifying conflicts.

Statistics:

  • Zambia is expected to produce more than 3.6 million tonnes of maize this season, a record harvest.
  • The futures price for South African white maize has fallen from R5,400 a tonne in January to R4,700 a tonne, a drop of 13%.
  • South Africa's maize crop this year is more than 14% higher than last year.
  • The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) has been removed from the region's radar screen this year.
  • However, there are concerns for Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali, with 50/50 chance of La Niña making a return by November.

Sources:

  • The UN's World Food Programme (WFP) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) Hunger Hotspots report.
  • Barchart data on South African white maize futures prices.
  • Various news sources, including the Daily Maverick.

Read more