Sugarcane Farmers in Thailand May Exit Industry in Response to WTO-Compliant Reforms

A recent study has evaluated the potential responses of Thai sugarcane farmers to policy reforms informed by the 2016 World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute, which requires the liberalisation of Thailand's sugar sector. The research found that approximately half of the surveyed farmers intend to exit the industry under a libertarian scenario, which involves lower support for sugarcane farming. This decision would result in a significant reduction in the number of sugarcane farmers and production areas. The study highlights the need for policymakers to balance WTO compliance with the sustainability of Thailand's sugarcane sector.

Key Takeaways:

• The study surveyed 462 farmers stratified by region and farm size to assess their intention to continue or exit sugarcane farming under three policy scenarios: government proposal, protectionism, and libertarian.
• Under the libertarian scenario, approximately 48.7% of respondents indicated an intention to exit sugarcane farming, compared to 32.3% under the government proposal and 22% under protectionism.
• Farmers' decisions were generally binary, either maintaining the status quo or exiting entirely, with exits increasing as the support cuts deepened.
• Small, less-specialised farms were the most vulnerable under the government proposal and protectionism scenarios, while medium-sized farms were the most adversely impacted under the libertarian scenario (56.5% indicating exit).
• Probit regression identified additional determinants of exit intentions, including sex, farming experience, region, harvesting and transportation methods, and the presence of a family successor and farm advisor.
• The study suggests that policymakers must consider the sustainability of Thailand's sugarcane sector when implementing WTO-compliant reforms.
• The research provides crucial insights for policymakers aiming to balance WTO compliance with the sustainability of Thailand's sugarcane sector.

Statistics:

• 48.7% of respondents intended to exit sugarcane farming under the libertarian scenario.
• 32.3% of respondents intended to exit sugarcane farming under the government proposal.
• 22% of respondents intended to exit sugarcane farming under the protectionism scenario.
• 462 farmers were surveyed for the study.
• 56.5% of medium-sized farms indicated an intention to exit under the libertarian scenario.
• 462 is the number of farmers stratified by region and farm size who were surveyed.

Sources:

• Assensing sugarcane farmers' intentions towards World Trade Organisation-driven sugar sector policy reforms in Thailand. Heliyon, 2025,11(13):e43517.
• Heliyon. http://www.heliyon.com
• Kasetsart University
• Savita Tangwongkit, Department of Agricultural Extension and Communication, Faculty of Agriculture at Kamphaeng Saen, Kasetsart University, Kamphaeng Sean Campus, Nakhon Pathom, 73140, Thailand.