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Swine Flu and Spring Planting Dominate US Cash Grain Market Discussions

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The US cash grain market experienced a significant decline in domestic grain futures due to the swine flu outbreak and spring planting discussions on Monday. Corn and wheat futures lost 10-15 cents, while soybeans fell over 45 cents per bushel. Analysts attributed the decline to consumer concerns about pork consumption and the subsequent impact on feed demand. The US slaughtered 114 million head of swine in 2008, consuming an estimated 1.25 billion bushels of corn and 300 million bushels of soybeans.

Key Takeaways:

  • The swine flu outbreak led to a significant decline in domestic grain futures, with corn losing 10-15 cents, wheat losing 1-3 cents, and soybeans losing over 45 cents per bushel.
  • The US slaughtered 114 million head of swine in 2008, consuming an estimated 1.25 billion bushels of corn and 300 million bushels of soybeans.
  • China, Russia, Thailand, Jordan, Indonesia, and the Philippines have banned pork imports from the US and Mexico, despite health officials confirming no evidence of swine flu transmission through pork or pigs.
  • Domestic basis premiums for grains had record broad gains across the US interior, ranging from 1-3 cents for corn and 1-5 cents for spring wheat/soybeans.
  • Much of the support for cash premiums came from a seasonal slowdown in country movement related to the onset of active spring fieldwork in key grain-growing areas.
  • Analysts expect corn planting progress to reach 20-25% on Monday, versus the average of 28%.
  • As of last week, only 5% of intended US corn acreage had been seeded.

Statistics:

  • Corn futures lost 10-15 cents on Monday.
  • Wheat futures lost 1-3 cents on Monday.
  • Soybeans futures lost over 45 cents per bushel on Monday.
  • The US slaughtered 114 million head of swine in 2008.
  • 1.25 billion bushels of corn and 300 million bushels of soybeans were consumed in 2008.
  • China, Russia, Thailand, Jordan, Indonesia, and the Philippines have banned pork imports from the US and Mexico.
  • Domestic basis premiums for grains had record broad gains across the US interior, ranging from 1-3 cents for corn and 1-5 cents for spring wheat/soybeans.

Sources:

  • Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex, Apr 27, 2009.
  • Early Market News, quoted analyst Duane Lowry.
  • eHedger analyst Justin Kelly.
  • Country Hedging analyst Phyllis Nystrom.
  • Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
  • Storm Exchange.
  • StormX.

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