Tactical Voting in the UK General Election: Experts Dismiss Talk of Unprecedented Scale

The British general election is shrouded in uncertainty, with polls showing Labour and Conservatives neck and neck. The possibility of tactical voting emerging as a decisive factor has sparked debate, with some analysts suggesting that thousands of voters could switch support in a bid to prevent a Labour victory in Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg's Sheffield Hallam seat. However, electoral experts have dismissed the notion that Britain is facing unprecedented tactical voting, pointing to the late 1990s and early 2000s as a period when anti-Tory voters switched support to either Labour or the Lib Dems.

Key Takeaways:

• Electoral experts have dismissed the idea of unprecedented tactical voting in the UK general election, citing instances in the late 1990s and early 2000s where voters switched support to either Labour or the Lib Dems.
• The biggest wave of tactical voting occurred when Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown were in charge of the two left-leaning parties, according to Anthony Wells, director of political polling at YouGov.
• Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, noted that a plethora of local polls has made it theoretically easier for people to vote tactically, but "now there's a lot less love between the Lib Dems and Labour".
• The Lib Dems' involvement in a coalition government with the Tories has led to some natural Labour supporters refusing to tactically support them, according to experts.
• Efforts to co-ordinate pro-union voters in Scotland to prevent a Scottish National party landslide have been met with little success so far.
• Analysts say there is some evidence that Conservative votes could help Labour's Scotland leader Jim Murphy in East Renfrewshire, but elsewhere tactical voting is unlikely to be widespread enough to hold back the SNP surge.

Statistics:

• According to an ICM poll, there is a "breath-taking" surge of Tory tactical votes that could rescue Nick Clegg from defeat in his Sheffield Hallam seat.
• Electoral experts estimate that the scale of tactical voting will not compare to 1997, according to Anthony Wells of YouGov.
• Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, emphasized that tactical voting is unlikely to be widespread enough to hold back the SNP surge.

Sources:

• ICM poll
• Anthony Wells, director of political polling at YouGov
• Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London
• The Sun
• Telegraph
• The Times
• Financial Times
• Economist
• Alistair Gray
• Martin Wolf