Taiwan's Independence Bid Sparks Tensions with China

Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui has stirred controversy by abandoning the "one China" fiction, giving Beijing a pretext to make demands on Washington and Taipei. Washington is now trying to coax or pressure Mr. Lee into modifying his statement promoting "special state-to-state relations" in reunification talks. This development has raised concerns about a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait, with some officials in the Clinton administration attempting to use it to improve strained relations between the United States and China.

Key Takeaways:

• Taiwan's democracy has given voice to a widely held popular desire for independence from the mainland, with the island being ruled separately for over 100 years.
• President Lee Teng-hui's gradual moves to co-opt the opposition's pro-independence stance have been successful, with the president surviving and prospering through periods of tension.
• Beijing sees Mr. Lee as a dangerous adversary who is setting unwelcome precedents that future leaders will be unable to reverse, adding urgency to Beijing's determination to teach Taiwan a lesson.
• The U.S. aim is to calm Beijing and avert a new crisis in the Taiwan Strait, while also trying to pressure Taiwan to accept an "interim solution" in exchange for China's agreement not to use force.
• The U.S. officials debating how to treat Taiwan are split, with one group favoring pressing Taiwan to accept an "interim solution" and another group concerned about China's increasing military capabilities.
• The dispute among U.S. officials has been reopened by Mr. Lee's announcement, strengthening the group seeking to pressure Taiwan and accommodate China.
• Overt pressure on Taiwan by Washington could prompt China to conclude that the United States is taking China's side and that Taiwan is therefore isolated and vulnerable.

Statistics:

• Taiwan has been ruled separately from the mainland for over 100 years.
• China lacks the capability to successfully invade Taiwan, is probably unwilling to use nuclear weapons on fellow Chinese, and would likely be opposed by the United States if it resorted to force.
• The United States has long sought to postpone the day of reckoning on Taiwan's future, hoping that changes under way on the mainland would make reunification more palatable to Taiwan or independence more tolerable to China.
• Washington has balanced its acknowledgement of "one China" with an insistence on Beijing's non-use of force since the start of U.S.-Chinese relations.
• The U.S. administration officials estimate that China may be at the end of its rope with Mr. Lee, with less than two years remaining in his term.
• The dispute among U.S. officials reflects mounting concerns in Congress about China's intentions, with a number of officials arguing that showing Beijing that Washington is willing to pressure Taipei will help to rebuild U.S.-Chinese ties.

Sources:

• The International Herald Tribune
• The writer, a former Asian affairs specialist in the Reagan and Bush administrations, is president of the Asia Pacific Policy Center.