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Taiwan's "One China" Fiction: A Challenging Reality for the Clinton Administration

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

President Lee Teng-hui's declaration that China-Taiwan relations must now be handled on a "state-to-state" basis has punctured the "one China" fiction, revealing a complex historical context and a potentially volatile diplomatic situation. Taiwan's complicated history, with the nationalists fleeing to the island in 1949 after Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's defeat, has led to a delicate balance between the two sides. The Taiwanese argument that "reunification" can only come after mainland China morphs into a democracy has created a precarious situation, with both sides misinterpreting the lessons of America's air war in Kosovo.

Key Takeaways:

  • Taiwan is an economic tiger, holding democratic elections and maintaining a distinct identity, but the world refuses to use the proper label, following China's insistence that it is a renegade province.
  • The "one China" policy stems from Taiwan's complicated history, with each side claiming the whole of China would be reunified under its rule after World War II.
  • President Lee's declaration does not rule out future, loose forms of Taiwanese-Chinese linkage, and neither side has declared formal independence.
  • The Chinese and Taiwanese governments are interpreting the lessons of Kosovo differently, with China seeing it as a precedent for American aid to secessionist republics and Taiwan believing America will come to its aid if provoked.
  • The international community is misled by the Beijing emperor's "clothes," failing to recognize Taiwan as a separate state with the potential to link into one China.
  • America is caught in the middle, unable to support unilateral Taipei independence but unable to stand by if Beijing uses force to subdue Taiwan.

Statistics:

  • 21 million: The population of Taiwan
  • 1949: The year Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists fled to Taiwan after escaping defeat in the Chinese Civil War
  • 10: The month October, when scheduled talks between Chinese and Taiwanese leaders were supposed to take place

Sources:

  • Trudy Rubin, "Taiwan's `One China' Fiction: A Challenging Reality for the Clinton Administration," Philadelphia Inquirer, 1999
  • James Lilley, former U.S. Ambassador to Beijing
  • Clinton Administration officials
  • Lee Teng-hui, President of Taiwan
  • Jiang Zemin, President of China
  • Philadelphia Inquirer archives

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