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Economic growth

Tajikistan's Sovereign Credit Rating Reaffirmed as B/B with Stable Outlook

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The National Bank of Tajikistan has welcomed the decision by SandP Global Ratings to reaffirm the country's sovereign credit rating at B/B with a 'stable' outlook. This move reflects Tajikistan's improved engagement with international partners, consistent economic growth, and rising foreign exchange reserves, which have contributed to timely debt servicing and reduced pressure on the country's balance of payments. According to the National Bank, Tajikistan's external economic indicators have strengthened in recent years, despite the significant share of concessional loans in its public debt. The reaffirmed rating is seen as a testament to the country's macroeconomic stability and strong economic performance, enhancing its credibility with foreign investors.

Key Takeaways:

  • The National Bank of Tajikistan has confirmed that Tajikistan has worked with international rating agencies since 2014 to assess its sovereign creditworthiness.
  • The country's improved engagement with international partners, consistent economic growth, and rising foreign exchange reserves have contributed to the reaffirmed credit rating.
  • Officials emphasized that concessional loans continue to make up a large share of Tajikistan's public debt, despite strengthening external economic indicators.
  • The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecasts Tajikistan's economy to grow by 8.4% in 2025, making it the country's fastest expansion in two decades.
  • Remittances from Tajik migrant workers account for approximately 45% of GDP, sustaining household consumption and contributing to overall macroeconomic resilience.
  • Growth of 8% is projected for 2026 and 7.1% for 2027, with Tajikistan expected to outpace both regional and global averages despite a slight moderation.
  • The reaffirmed credit rating is seen as a testament to Tajikistan's macroeconomic stability and strong economic performance, enhancing its credibility with foreign investors.
  • The country's economic momentum is driven by remittances, consistent growth, and rising foreign exchange reserves.

Statistics:

  • 2014: Tajikistan began working with international rating agencies to assess its sovereign creditworthiness.
  • B/B credit rating: Tajikistan's sovereign credit rating, reaffirmed with a 'stable' outlook by SandP Global Ratings.
  • 8.4% growth rate: Forecasted economic growth in 2025, Tajikistan's fastest expansion in two decades according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
  • 45% of GDP: The share of remittances from Tajik migrant workers in the country's GDP.
  • 8% growth rate: Projected for 2026.
  • 7.1% growth rate: Projected for 2027.
  • Regional and global averages: Tajikistan is expected to outpace both regional and global averages despite a slight moderation in growth.

Sources:

  • National Bank of Tajikistan
  • SandP Global Ratings
  • Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)

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