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Tanzania's Election Observers Face Challenges in Ensuring Free and Fair Polls

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As Tanzania heads into general elections on 29 October, concerns over the country's democratic decline have sparked debate over the role of election observers. While domestic observers may not improve the quality of polls, they can enhance transparency and public awareness. International and regional observer missions, including the African Union (AU), the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), face criticism for their limited impact in ensuring free and fair elections. Domestic observer missions by civil society, human rights organisations, and grassroots groups have become increasingly important in documenting malpractice and irregularities.

Key Takeaways:

  • Tanzania's ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, is likely to win the election easily due to the disqualification of main opposition parties from the presidential race.
  • The country's democratic regression has been marked by government clampdowns, abductions, and enforced disappearances of government critics, resulting in low voter turnout.
  • The media environment has deteriorated significantly, with a 25% decrease in media freedom since 2016, according to the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index.
  • Election observer missions have become increasingly important in increasing public confidence and strengthening governance institutions. However, regional missions have been criticized for rubber-stamping elections that don't meet democratic standards.
  • Domestic observer missions by civil society, human rights organisations, and grassroots groups have become essential in documenting malpractice and irregularities.
  • The AU and regional bodies have been cautious in their verdicts of elections, often delivering vague and standardised statements to avoid diplomatic tensions.
  • The AU's pre-election assessment in Tanzania involved meetings with government officials, election stakeholders, and security officials, but the findings and recommendations have yet to be released.
  • Domestic observer missions can help increase transparency and public awareness, but may not necessarily ensure free and fair elections.
  • The AU should document irregularities occurring during the 29 October general elections and use them to call for long-term institutional reforms.

Statistics:

  • 25% decrease in media freedom since 2016, according to the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index.
  • 90 days suspension of JamiiForums, the country's most popular online platform, for publishing content deemed misleading and insulting to the government and president.
  • 90% predicted landslide victory for the ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi.
  • Low voter turnout expected due to government clampdowns and citizen disillusionment.
  • 100% of traditional media outlets resorting to self-censorship and government praise to avoid falling foul of the administration.

Sources:

  • Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index (2023).
  • JamiiForums (2023).
  • Tanzania Elections Watch (2020).
  • African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (2007).
  • African Union Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa (2007).
  • Guidelines for AU Electoral Observation and Monitoring Missions (2013).
  • Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, Nicodemus Minde (2023).
  • AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com).

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