Tariffs and Trade Wars: Global Economy at Risk of Recession

The second edition of the "Strategic Intelligence: Tariffs and Trade Wars Executive Briefing" report highlights the significant impact of President Trump's tariff campaign on the global economy. In the first 100 days of his presidency, Trump imposed tariffs that have disrupted global supply chains, created uncertainty for businesses, and affected consumer sentiment, which recently reached a five-year low in the US. The report analyzes the macroeconomic implications of tariffs and provides detailed insights into their impact on various sectors, including aerospace, defense, and security, agribusiness, automotive, and more.

Key Takeaways:

• The report outlines the impact of tariffs on the global economy, including the macroeconomic implications, and provides analysis on how this theme may play out over the coming weeks and months.
• The report includes sector scorecards, which have been updated to capture the impact of the emerging trade war on 15 sectors: aerospace, defense, and security, agribusiness, automotive, construction, consumer, financial services, medical devices, mining, oil and gas, pharma, power, retail, sport, technology, and travel and tourism.
• All sectors are impacted by higher tariffs and the prospect of a global trade war, including those indirectly affected by the impact on the wider economy.
• The report includes analysis from industry analysts and macroeconomic experts, providing a comprehensive understanding of the impact on businesses.
• The risks of a US and global recession are growing unless threatened tariffs are reduced and trade deals are struck with key trading partners.
• Even with reduced tariffs, the trade wars will change trade flows and lead to a further restructuring of supply chains.

Statistics:

• The report covers the latest developments in President Trump's tariff campaign, including the expected impacts on the global economy and updated assessments of the likely impact of tariffs on all sectors.
• Consumer sentiment has reached a five-year low in the US due to the uncertainty caused by tariffs.
• The US administration has imposed a 10 percent global baseline and a "reciprocal" tariff framework, along with significant tariffs on strategic sectors.
• In the first 100 days of his presidency, President Trump disrupted eight decades of global trade rules with the imposition of tariffs.

Sources:

• "Strategic Intelligence: Tariffs and Trade Wars Executive Briefing (Second Edition)" report
• ResearchAndMarkets.com