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Foreign ministers

Tehran's Nuclear File: A Shift in Control Looms as Larijani's Reinstatement Sparks Debate

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A renewed debate is simmering in Tehran over whether Iran's nuclear file should remain under the Foreign Ministry or be returned to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). The speculation comes after Ali Larijani's reinstatement as the SNSC secretary, sparking rumors of a shift in control. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has dismissed the rumors, but the debate reflects a broader push to boost the SNSC's influence over the nuclear file, tightening its grip on future talks.

Key Takeaways:

  • The SNSC, with operational protection handled by a special Revolutionary Guards unit, currently coordinates inspector access with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.
  • Parliament passed a law in March suspending cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog and requiring SNSC approval for future inspections of atomic sites.
  • Analysts say the legislation reflects a push to boost the SNSC's influence over the nuclear file, tightening its grip on future talks.
  • The move would give the ministry a higher profile internationally but would not strip the council of its veto power.
  • Larijani's return has revived speculation about a reversal of the 2013 decision to put the responsibility for negotiations with the Foreign Ministry.
  • The SNSC's historic dominance in shaping nuclear strategy has been fueled by Larijani's comeback and the council's recent resurgence in the nuclear debate.

Statistics:

  • 2013: Responsibility for negotiations was handed to the Foreign Ministry, but the SNSC remained the main decision-making "kitchen."
  • 2015: The nuclear deal was signed, with Larijani playing a key role in shepherding the agreement as parliament speaker.
  • 2021: Larijani was excluded from the presidential race due to conservative backlash over his support for the accord.
  • 2024: Larijani was appointed as the SNSC secretary, sparking speculation about a shift in control.

Sources:

  • Khabar Online news site
  • Saudi Research and Publishing Co.
  • SyndiGate Media Inc.
  • March 2022: The Biden administration collapsed in Vienna talks with Iran following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
  • March 2024: Reports suggested Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wanted the nuclear file moved back under bodies directly answerable to him.
  • 2003: Reformist president Mohammad Khatami started the negotiation track with Rouhani holding the SNSC post.
  • 2004-2006: Larijani served as SNSC secretary and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator before resigning in a dispute with then-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
  • 2021: Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi revealed the existence of an influential, unnamed parallel committee directing negotiations outside the SNSC framework.

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