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United Nations

Tensions Rise in Rwanda as UN Withdraws Peacekeepers, Fears of Civil War Loom

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A tense situation is unfolding in Rwanda as the United Nations withdraws its peacekeepers, leaving the country vulnerable to a possible reprise of last year's civil war. The Rwandan military, predominantly Tutsi, is massing troops along the western border in anticipation of an attack by rearmed remnants of the exiled Hutu military based in refugee camps in neighboring Zaire. An estimated 500,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsi, were killed in massacres orchestrated by the Hutu military during the 1994 genocide. The Hutu military and militia fled to Zaire, along with 2 million other Hutu, and have been rearmed with the help of arms traders from France, South Africa, and China, despite an international arms embargo.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Rwandan military has mustered as many as 50,000 soldiers along the western border in anticipation of an attack by the exiled Hutu military.
  • The exiled Hutu military and militias have assembled roughly 50,000 men, rearmed with the help of arms traders from France, South Africa, and China.
  • The Rwandan soldiers have already encountered probing raids by Hutu militias loyal to a mainly Hutu government driven out after the civil war.
  • The long-term stability of the Tutsi-led Government is uncertain, and a military attack could destabilize the entire region.
  • The exiled Hutu government and its military have demanded a power-sharing arrangement with the Tutsi-led Government, which has refused to negotiate with those involved in last year's mass killings.

Statistics:

  • 500,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsi, were killed in massacres orchestrated by the Hutu military during the 1994 genocide.
  • 2 million Hutu fled to Zaire during the genocide.
  • The Rwandan military has mustered as many as 50,000 soldiers along the western border.
  • The exiled Hutu military and militias have assembled roughly 50,000 men.
  • 10,000 people are supposed to be held in prisons, but are packed with 50,000.

Sources:

  • Human Rights Watch/Africa, "Rwanda: Arms Trading with the Enemy"
  • Western diplomat in Kigali (unnamed)
  • Rwandan Government official (unnamed)
  • Charles Murigande, adviser to President Pasteur Bizimungu
  • Senior relief official (unnamed)
  • United Nations officials (unnamed)

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