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Texas Republicans Unveil Congressional Map That Could Dilute Hispanic Voting Power

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Texas Republicans have redrew their congressional map at the urging of Donald Trump, aiming to pick up five seats in the 2024 midterm elections without spreading their voters too thin. The new map could dilute Hispanic voting power, favoring Republicans in 30 of Texas's 38 congressional districts. Under the proposed districts, Trump would have won all 30 by at least 10 points if they were in place for the 2024 election. Republicans achieved this goal by shifting district boundaries in three different parts of the state, including south Texas, central Texas, and the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and Houston.

Key Takeaways:

  • Republicans unveiled a new congressional map that could dilute Hispanic voting power, making them favored in 30 of Texas's 38 congressional districts.
  • The new map would give Trump a win in all 30 districts by at least 10 points if it were in place for the 2024 election.
  • Republicans shifted district boundaries in three different parts of the state, including south Texas, central Texas, and the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and Houston.
  • Two Democratic-held districts, held by Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, would have been won by Trump by around 10 points if the proposed districts were in place.
  • Cuellar and Gonzalez, two established incumbents, could still win in their new districts despite the shift in boundaries.
  • David Wasserman, a well-respected analyst at the Cook Political Report, believes that Republicans could have guaranteed themselves five seats if they had drawn a more aggressive map.
  • The new map replaces several districts where Hispanic and other non-white voters had been electing Democrats with majority-Hispanic districts that favor Republicans.
  • The map would increase the number of districts where white people comprise a majority from 22 to 24, according to an analysis by the Texas Tribune.
  • The map would also create an additional Hispanic-majority district, and two new Black-majority districts.
  • Analysts believe that simply adding additional majority-Hispanic districts is not enough to evade scrutiny under the Voting Rights Act.

Statistics:

  • 30 congressional districts in Texas could be won by Trump by at least 10 points if the proposed districts were in place for the 2024 election.
  • 22 districts in Texas are currently majority-white, but the new map would increase this number to 24, according to the Texas Tribune.
  • Hispanic and other non-white voters accounted for 95% of Texas's population growth, according to a coalition of Latino voting organizations, advocacy groups, and voters.
  • 2024 would see the midterm elections.
  • 38 is the total number of congressional districts in Texas.

Sources:

  • Sam Levine, "Texas Republicans unveil congressional map that could gift them five seats," The Guardian.
  • Eric Gay/AP, "Photograph: John McQueeney, a Texas state representative, looks through US congressional district maps during a hearing at the Texas capitol on 24 July in Austin."

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