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Thai Stocks Continue Upward Trend Amid Global Economic Forecast Revisions

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Thai stocks have maintained their upward momentum in recent trading sessions, driven by several factors, including fund inflows and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) upward revision of its global and Thai economic forecasts. The market atmosphere continues to be supported by foreign fund inflows, with a larger picture reflecting a capital shift away from Developed Markets (DM) to Emerging Markets (EM), particularly in Asia. Key factors to watch include the US Federal Reserve's (FED) meeting, which the market is adjusting to a more accommodative outlook, and the IMF's revised global GDP forecast.

Key Takeaways:

  • The IMF revised its global GDP forecast upward to 3% (previously 2.8%), driven by a lower US tax rate and upward revisions in key countries, including the US, China, Europe, and Japan.
  • Thailand's economic growth forecast was revised upward to 2% (previously 1.8%), reflecting a growing trend of fund inflows to Emerging Markets, particularly in Asia.
  • The market atmosphere remains supported by foreign fund inflows, driven by a capital shift away from DM to EM, particularly in Asia.
  • The US Federal Reserve's meeting is a key factor to watch, as the market adjusts to a more accommodative outlook, despite expected interest rates remaining at 4.25-4.5%.
  • The IMF warned of major risks to the global economy, including further tariff hikes, geopolitical tensions, and rising budget deficits, which could lead to higher interest rates and tighter global financial conditions.
  • The baht and several EM currencies remained stable, reflecting capital inflows and confidence in the regional economy.
  • Crude oil prices surged due to US President Donald Trump's pressure on Russia to cease its attack on Ukraine within 10 days, boosting energy prices and oil and gas stocks.
  • The number of foreign tourists increased for consecutive weeks, particularly in China, which saw a seven-week recovery, boosting service-related stocks and reopening stocks.

Statistics:

  • The IMF's revised global GDP forecast for 2025 is 3% (previously 2.8%).
  • Thailand's economic growth forecast was revised upward to 2% (previously 1.8%).
  • The US GDP growth forecast was revised upward to 1.9% (previously 1.8%).
  • The IMF warned of major risks, including further tariff hikes, geopolitical tensions, and rising budget deficits.
  • The dollar strengthened, but EM currencies also strengthened, with the baht and several EM currencies remaining stable.
  • Crude oil prices surged by 3.6% due to US President Donald Trump's pressure on Russia.

Sources:

  • Thai News Agency, 30 Jul 2025
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, July 2025
  • Krungsri Securities, Senior Executive Vice President Mr. Korapat Vorachet
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), press release, 30 Jul 2025

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