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The 2020 Presidential Election: Lessons from History and Numbers

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The recent national polls have painted a seemingly favorable picture for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, with some polls even indicating a double-digit lead over Republican President Donald Trump. However, as former Governor Ann Richards wisely noted, "July does not a November election make." This historical precedent is crucial for Democrats, who have been quick to celebrate their recent successes without fully understanding the complexities of the 2020 presidential election.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 1988 presidential election is a stark reminder that polls are not always a reliable indicator of the outcome. Despite Michael Dukakis's lead in the polls, George H.W. Bush carried 40 states and won 53% of the popular vote.
  • The 2016 presidential election featured one of the most unique matchups in history, with both candidates having the highest unfavorable ratings in Gallup history. However, voters who disliked both candidates still voted for Trump by a 3-2 margin, providing the margin for his electoral college victory.
  • Trump's 2020 campaign is not comparable to the "free vote" scenario of 2016, as he is a more established figure with a clear brand and record.
  • The respected Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll co-founder, Peter D. Hart, has stated that Trump is a "me president" at a time when the country needs a "we president." This stark contrast between Trump's leadership style and the needs of the nation creates a compelling case for Biden's candidacy.

Statistics:

  • In the 1988 presidential election, George H.W. Bush carried 40 states and won 53% of the popular vote.
  • Hillary Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote to Donald Trump's 46.1% in the 2016 presidential election.
  • 1 out of 5 voters in the 2016 presidential election had unfavorable feelings toward both Trump and Clinton.
  • Voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump in the 2016 election voted by a 3-2 margin for Trump, providing the margin for his electoral college victory.
  • Trump's 61% unfavorable score in the Gallup poll is the worst in Gallup history, while Hillary Clinton's 52% unfavorable score is the second-worst.

Sources:

  • "Face the Nation," CBS, July 3, 1988
  • The Gallup poll
  • The Wall Street Journal
  • NBC News
  • ABC News

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