The Art of Prediction: Lessons from the Iowa and New Hampshire Primaries

In the lead-up to the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, various polls and pundits made predictions about the outcome, with some, like the authors' own poll, surprising many by accurately forecasting the winner. However, in this article, we examine why these predictions were often mistaken, citing factors such as the lengthening campaigns, round-the-clock news coverage, and the Feiler Faster Thesis, which suggests that voters and journalists process information quickly, allowing candidates to switch tactics rapidly.

Key Takeaways:

• A poll of workers at bars, restaurants, and hotels in Des Moines, Iowa, conducted by the authors, surprisingly predicted John Kerry's victory in the Iowa caucuses, a forecast that proved accurate despite the poll's limited history of accuracy.
• The authors conducted a second survey in Manchester, New Hampshire, which showed a slight increase in anti-Kerry sentiment but still predicted Kerry's win.
• The Feiler Faster Thesis, coined by blogger Mickey Kaus, suggests that voters and journalists process information quickly, allowing candidates to change tactics instantly and turn around campaigns overnight.
• Despite the authors' accurate prediction in Iowa, many pundits, including David Yepsen and Chris Matthews, initially underestimated Kerry's chances based on perceived campaign momentum and organization.
• Pundits like Jeff Greenfield and Mickey Kaus recognized the pitfalls of making predictions, with Greenfield citing his 1972 prediction of John Lindsay winning the presidency.
• The winter of 2000's George W. Bush's rightward turn in the primaries serves as an example of how quickly candidates can change their tactics and adapt to changing circumstances.

Statistics:

• 36 workers at bars, restaurants, and hotels in Des Moines, Iowa, participated in the authors' initial poll, with Kerry winning 50% of the vote.
• 36 workers at 8 campaign hangouts in Manchester, NH, participated in the second survey, with Kerry still winning 50%.
• 50% of respondents in the Manchester survey predicted Kerry would win the New Hampshire primary.
• In the Iowa caucuses, 34% of the vote went to Kerry.

Sources:

• Modest Acclaim For Poll Scoop
• The Des Moines Register
• kausfiles.com
• Fox News Sunday