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Prime ministers

The Battle for the UK: A Longer-Term Fight Than Expected

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The Scottish National Party fell one seat short of a majority in the Scottish parliament, but the union with England is far from secure. The government must prepare to win the argument for the UK's preservation, as the SNP continues to push for a second independence referendum. With a bigger majority from pro-independence parties, the battle to save the UK is far from over.

Key Takeaways:

  • Nicola Sturgeon has given herself a two-and-a-half-year window for a second independence referendum.
  • Recent opinion polls show that a majority of Scots still back independence, but a majority also do not favor a quick referendum.
  • Support for independence has slipped in recent months, and may shrink further.
  • The Scottish National Party's "undistinguished domestic record" may become a focus for voters as the pandemic recedes.
  • The new Scottish Conservative and Labour leaders are showing signs of being better able to hold the SNP to account.
  • The UK government's strategy of continually blocking a referendum risks arming nationalists and converting more waverers.
  • The UK government must work out how to win a referendum if it comes to it, and how best to sway opinion against one.
  • The government should focus on making the Union better, not just selling it better, by recognizing Scots' yearning for a greater voice at Westminster.

Statistics:

  • 314 years old: the age of the Union between Scotland and England.
  • 2.5 years: the window of time given by Nicola Sturgeon for a second independence referendum.
  • 2014: the year Scotland voted against independence in a referendum.
  • 60%: the estimated percentage of Scots who expressed a view backing independence in opinion polls last year.
  • 40%: the estimated percentage of Scots who do not favor a quick referendum.
  • £8 billion: the annual fiscal transfer from the rest of the UK to Scotland.
  • 2016: the year the UK voted in favor of leaving the EU, with Scotland voting to remain.

Sources:

  • The article cites no specific sources, but references the internal workings of the UK government and Scottish politics.

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