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Bush, George W.

The Democrat's Dilemma: Understanding the Race for the White House

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As the situation in Iraq has worsened and President Bush's job-approval ratings have declined, John Kerry has struggled to pull ahead of the president in national polls. Despite the challenges, many Democrats have begun to despair, wondering if Mr. Kerry can gain ground when the president is in trouble. However, the data suggests that there is still a sizable independent swing vote that could drive the election one way or the other. Moreover, voters are now focused almost exclusively on the president, a phenomenon typical of elections where voters first decide whether the incumbent deserves re-election before considering the challenger.

Key Takeaways:

  • National polls have shown a steep decline in President Bush's job-approval ratings, with some polls registering him well below the 50 percent mark.
  • Despite this, John Kerry has struggled to pull ahead of the president in national polls, with most recent surveys showing a split vote between the two candidates.
  • The evenly divided, highly polarized electorate is a key factor in the lack of progress for Mr. Kerry's campaign.
  • The Bush-Cheney advertising blitz in swing states has been particularly effective, but polls show that most voters still hold positive or neutral views of Mr. Kerry.
  • It's a common dynamic in elections for voters to focus first on the incumbent before considering the challenger.
  • In the 1980 and 1992 elections, similar dynamics played out, with voters struggling to decide if the challenger was an acceptable alternative to the incumbent.

Statistics:

  • President Bush's job-approval ratings have declined, with some recent polls registering him below the 50 percent mark (CBS/New York Times survey).
  • The Gallup, Fox News, and NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys from last week showed registered voters split about evenly between the president and Mr. Kerry.
  • In the CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Pew Center surveys from last week, Mr. Kerry gained a small lead, but it disappeared when respondents were asked to consider the candidacy of Ralph Nader.
  • As of the latest surveys, 56% of voters disapprove of President Bush's handling of the Iraq war (CBS/New York Times survey).

Sources:

  • CBS/New York Times survey
  • Gallup survey
  • Fox News survey
  • NBC/Wall Street Journal survey
  • CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey
  • Pew Center survey
  • Times Mirror Center survey

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