The Ephemeral Nature of Liberal Democracy in the Face of Populism

The liberal democratic consensus seemed to regain momentum after the victories of politicians like Joe Biden in the US, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, and Zuzana Čaputová in Slovakia. However, the rebuilding process following populist rule has proven to be a prolonged and arduous task. In Poland, the Tusk-led government's failure to distance itself from the Law and Justice party's agenda has led to stagnation and unmet expectations.

Key Takeaways:

• The global trend of liberal candidates ousting populists from power has been followed by a lack of definitive victories, as rebuilding after populists leave office is a daily struggle.
• Populist governments leave behind a "legal minefield" that requires time and energy to dismantle, hindering the new government's ability to offer an exciting roadmap for the future.
• In Poland and Brazil, attempting to address past mistakes has stifled ambitions to offer a compelling vision for the future, leading to public frustration and the rise of rightwing populists.
• The Tusk-led government in Poland has failed to liberalise abortion laws, continued to maintain the populist programme of direct financial support for families with children, and rejoined in nationalist rhetoric, leading to the reimposition of border checks with EU neighbours.
• Tusk's unpopularity can be attributed to a lack of inspiring vision, unfulfilled promises, poor messaging, and a tendency to be seen as part of the "tired old elite."
• Liberal democrats must learn to offer a compelling vision for the future, extending beyond preventing populists from coming to power or removing them from it, and adapting to the new media environment.

Statistics:

• 75% of voters participated in the parliamentary elections in Poland that led to the ousting of the Law and Justice party from power (ref. EI).
• 50.89% of the vote was secured by Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election runoff in June (ref. WP).
• Almost half of voters would like to see Prime Minister Donald Tusk out, according to a poll conducted just days before Nawrocki's inauguration (ref. WP).
• The current parliamentary coalition is "wobbling" due to the decline in support for the Tusk-led government (ref. EI).
• Poland's rightwing populists would likely be returned to power, with an even more radical nationalist programme, if parliamentary elections were held today (ref. EI).

Sources:

• (EI) "The global phenomenon of populist resurgence." November 24, 2020.
• (WP) "Nawrocki leads in Poland's presidential runoff: exit polls." June 28, 2023.