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Iranian foreign relations

The Flawed Strategic Doctrines of Israel and Iran

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is marked by the clash of two strategic doctrines: Iran's "out-crazy" doctrine, which relies on extreme measures, and Israel's "once and for all" doctrine, which seeks permanent occupation. Both doctrines are flawed, and President Trump has a chance to correct them and stabilize the Middle East. To achieve this, Trump should equip Israel's Air Force with B-2 bombers and trainers, and declare recognition of Palestinian national self-determination, subject to conditions of good governance and coexistence with Israel.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iran's "out-crazy" doctrine, practiced by Hezbollah, has led to devastating attacks, including the assassination of Lebanon's Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and the murder of thousands of Syrians to maintain power.
  • Israel's "once and for all" doctrine is a fallacy, as permanent occupation of the West Bank, Gaza, and Iran is impractical, and only a two-state solution can provide a lasting resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • The doctrine of "once and for all" can lead to a forever war, as it ignores the rights of Palestinians to national self-determination and their desire to coexist with Israelis.
  • The Trump administration should recognize Palestinian national self-determination, subject to conditions of good governance and coexistence with Israel.
  • The administration should also declare its commitment to sponsoring peace talks for a two-state solution, with the Trump peace plan as a starting point.
  • The strategy of "out-crazing" the adversary has been necessary for Israel's survival, but it is not sufficient; pairing force with diplomacy and exploring alternatives is essential for achieving peace.
  • The United States has no interest in making Israel safe for messianic expansion or Iran safe for nuclear messianism; Trump should ignore isolationist and pro-Netanyahu advice.
  • The favorable conditions for a wise statesman to use coercive diplomacy are present in the current war; Trump must decide whether to seize this opportunity.

Statistics:

  • Israel has occupied the West Bank for 58 years.
  • The Netanyahu government approved 22 new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank in May, the largest expansion in decades.
  • Iran has generated enough fissile material to produce a nuclear bomb.
  • The Trump administration has not provided a clear western border for Iran, nor a clear eastern border for Israel in the West Bank.

Sources:

  • [1] "Statecraft 2.0" by Dennis Ross.
  • [2] The New York Times opinion section, June 2023.
  • [3] Dennis Ross, "Statecraft 2.0," (Author's mention).
  • [4] The Times, "letters to the editor," June 2023.
  • [5] The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Bluesky, WhatsApp, and Threads.
  • [6] The New York Times, "A18," June 2023.

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