The Forever War: Why Trump's Sanctions Approach Won't End the Ukraine Conflict

As the war in Ukraine reaches its third year, it's clear that the conventional economic pressure approach, employed by the Biden, Trump, and Obama administrations, has failed to bring about a negotiated peace. American presidents have consistently threatened and gradually imposed economic sanctions on Russia, hoping to destabilize the regime and force Vladimir Putin to change course. However, this approach has only served to immiserate ordinary Russians, while the elites remain wealthy and in power. Russia has even used sanctions as an opportunity to consolidate its economic ties with countries like Iran and to prioritize new export markets.

Key Takeaways:

• The economic pressure approach has been employed by multiple administrations, including the Biden, Trump, and Obama administrations, in an attempt to bring about a negotiated peace in Ukraine.
• This approach has failed to achieve its intended goal, instead leading to widespread hardship for ordinary Russians while the elites remain untouched.
• Russia has used sanctions as an opportunity to strengthen its economic ties with other countries, including Iran, and to diversify its export markets.
• The elites in Russia are motivated by power and control, rather than wealth, and are therefore less likely to be swayed by economic pressure.
• The war in Ukraine is becoming increasingly entrenched, with both sides digging in for a long-term conflict.
• The use of drone attacks by Ukraine has become a key negotiating advantage, forcing Russia to devote significant resources to defense.
• Military defeat is the only thing that could force Putin to negotiate in earnest, but the US and NATO have consistently chosen not to take that path, relying instead on failed policies.

Statistics:

• The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for over three years, with no signs of a negotiated peace in sight.
• Economic sanctions have been imposed by multiple administrations, including the Biden, Trump, and Obama administrations.
• The use of drone attacks by Ukraine has resulted in the suspension of Russian airport operations on over 100 occasions in the past year.
• Russia has millions of men available for military service, making a military victory for Ukraine unlikely.
• The war has already caused significant devastation, with entire cities destroyed, swaths of farmland turned into minefields, and thousands of people killed or displaced.

Sources:

• "The Future Is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia" by Masha Gessen, 2017.
• "2000 Meters to Andriivka" documentary, 2024.
• The New York Times, Opinion section, May 2024.