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Iranian foreign relations

The Fragile Nature of Israel's Successes: Assessing the Consequences of War in the Middle East

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

In the aftermath of the US-led bombing raids on Iran, Israel's government has managed to kill much of the Iranian military leadership and inflict significant damage on the country's nuclear and military infrastructure. However, the long-term consequences of this war are far from certain, and Israel's short-term successes may ultimately prove to be a gamble that has backfired. The medium and long-term implications of this conflict are still unclear, with potentially disastrous consequences for all parties involved.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israel has succeeded in killing much of the Iranian military leadership and inflicting significant damage on the country's nuclear and military infrastructure.
  • The US has long and bitter experience of seeing initial military victories turn into grinding, endless wars.
  • Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and what's left of his military now face a menu of unappetising choices, including the risk of regime change or a prolonged and messy conflict.
  • The US has made promises of retaliation for any Iranian retaliation, which could lead to further escalation and increased divisions within America.
  • Trump's decision to bomb Iran against the backdrop of deep misgivings from his own supporters risks further destabilizing the region and emboldening Iran's domestic enemies.
  • The US has pulled out of Middle East entanglements in the face of heavy losses in the past, including the 1983 bombing of the US marine barracks in Beirut.
  • The only outcome that would allow the US to claim "mission accomplished" is if Iran completely and verifiably dismantled its nuclear program and the current regime was replaced by a stable, pro-western government.

Statistics:

  • 241 American lives lost in the 1983 bombing of the US marine barracks in Beirut.
  • 10 million people living in Israel, a country dominating a region with a population of several hundred million.
  • Potentially disastrous consequences of the war for all parties involved, including increased risk of regime change, prolonged conflict, or American involvement in another "forever war".

Sources:

  • Gideon Rachman, "Israel and Iran are heading for war", Financial Times, available at [www.ft.com/content/2497c39e-4b1c-11e9-9c6d-5e1701a6ec92](http://www.ft.com/content/2497c39e-4b1c-11e9-9c6d-5e1701a6ec92).

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