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Economic growth

The Future of Trade: How AI Can Foster Inclusive Economic Growth

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The relationship between artificial intelligence (AI) and international trade is becoming increasingly complex and rapidly evolving. A new report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) examines the potential of AI to stimulate global trade and foster inclusive growth. The report highlights that AI could stimulate global trade by almost 40% by 2040, if trade-related access gaps are bridged. Proper AI policies could increase cross-border trade of goods and services by up to 40% within the same timeframe.

Key Takeaways:

  • AI could stimulate global trade by almost 40% by 2040, if trade-related access gaps are bridged.
  • Proper AI policies could increase cross-border trade of goods and services by up to 40% within the same timeframe.
  • The report warns that AI could significantly boost trade and GDP by 2040, but growth will vary depending on policy frameworks and the speed of technology adoption across low-, middle-, and high-income economies.
  • Global GDP increases of 12-13% are projected by 2040, with AI amplifying the role of trade as a driver of inclusive economic growth.
  • AI-related trade in goods critical to AI, such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate products, reached US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
  • Narrowing digital infrastructure gaps by 50% and increasing AI adoption could raise income by 15% in low-income economies and 14% in middle-income economies.
  • Trade rules restricting access to AI have doubled, from 130 items in 2012 to 500 in 2024, mainly imposed by high- and upper-middle-income countries.
  • Investment in AI education and skills training, along with appropriate labour-market policies, can mitigate the expansion of inequality.
  • The WTO has convened member discussions on trade measures related to AI, highlighting 80 key trade concerns and exploring inclusive AI trade strategies.

Statistics:

  • AI could stimulate global trade by almost 40% by 2040.
  • Proper AI policies could increase cross-border trade of goods and services by up to 40% within the same timeframe.
  • Global GDP increases of 12-13% are projected by 2040.
  • AI-related trade in goods critical to AI reached US$2.3 trillion in 2023.
  • Narrowing digital infrastructure gaps by 50% and increasing AI adoption could raise income by 15% in low-income economies and 14% in middle-income economies.
  • Trade rules restricting access to AI have doubled, from 130 items in 2012 to 500 in 2024.

Sources:

  • World Trade Organization (2025) - The 2025 World Trade Report: Harnessing the Power of Artificial Intelligence for Inclusive Growth
  • World Trade Organization (2025) - Foreword by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
  • World Trade Organization (2025) - Report launch on September 17, 2025

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