The Limits of China-Russia-Iran Alliance Emerge as Israel Strikes Iran

China and Russia, along with their allies Iran and North Korea, have formed a strategic partnership to challenge the US-led international order. However, recent Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities have exposed the limits of their alliance. Despite calls for a ceasefire and de-escalation, Beijing and Moscow have stayed on the sidelines, highlighting the priority they place on advancing their own national interests.

Key Takeaways:

• The Chinese and Russian leaders, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, held an urgent phone call in mid-June to discuss the crisis in Iran, but have since stayed on the sidelines of the conflict.
• Iran's weakening at the hands of Israel's military has highlighted the limits of its alliance with China and Russia, with experts saying that Beijing and Moscow have been reluctant to provide effective military support.
• China and Russia have significantly deepened ties since the February 2022 "no-limits" strategic partnership, but their reactions to the Iran-Israel war underscore the priority they place on advancing narrower national interests and avoiding entanglement in a Middle East conflict.
• Iran's entry into accords with China and Russia, including a strategic partnership with China in 2021, has not translated into meaningful defense commitments.
• The relationships between China, Russia, and Iran are transactional, with Tehran accepting help from its allies on a case-by-case basis.
• The latest strikes give Moscow significant leverage over Tehran, says Alexey Mukhin, head of the independent Center for Political Information, a consultancy in Moscow.

Statistics:

• Iran has sold Russia thousands of drones, as well as bombs, missiles, and other military hardware for use in Ukraine.
• China buys an estimated 90% of Iranian oil exports, an amount that represents an economic lifeline for Tehran, while it constitutes only about one-tenth of China's oil imports.
• China and India are the two largest consumers of Iranian oil, taking up to 84% of its exports.
• Iran has joined two multilateral organizations spearheaded by China and Russia, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Sources:

• Nader Habibi, professor of practice in the economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University's Crown Center for Middle East Studies
• Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities
• Alexey Mukhin, head of the independent Center for Political Information
• Iran Press TV
• Global Times
• Staff writer, Fred Weir Special correspondent