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McCain, John

The Rise of Independent Voters in American Primaries: A Revolution in the Making

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

A significant shift has occurred in the American election system without much fanfare. The "independentation" of primaries will play a crucial role in determining the next president. Historically, state primary elections were sites of partisan battles within each party. However, this trend is reversing, and unaligned voters are now poised to decide the nominees of both parties. This phenomenon has given a boost to insurgent candidates like John McCain and Bill Bradley.

Key Takeaways:

  • In the next seven weeks, unaligned voters will decide the nominees of both parties in the crucial early primaries.
  • No party registration is required in the three launch-pad states: New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan.
  • Independent voters will play a decisive role in choosing party standard-bearers, particularly in New Hampshire, where they may vote in either party's primary.
  • The expected turnout in South Carolina's primary is 300,000, 5 percent more than in 1996.
  • One-third of South Carolina's 2 million voters are habitual switchers, and the Republican primary on Feb. 19 is where the action is.
  • Rep. Lindsey Graham is supporting John McCain, while the state's 400,000 veterans, largely independents, are declaring a GOP preference.
  • In Michigan, 2 million independents can walk in and become a Republican for a day to vote in the primary on Feb. 22.

Statistics:

  • 300,000: expected turnout in South Carolina's primary (WNDS-TV, Jennifer Martin Donohue's report)
  • 5 percent: increase in turnout in South Carolina compared to 1996
  • 2 million: number of voters in South Carolina, with one-third being habitual switchers
  • 400,000: number of veterans in South Carolina, largely independents
  • 2 million: number of voters in Michigan
  • 22: date of the Michigan GOP primary (Feb. 22)
  • 19: date of the South Carolina GOP primary (Feb. 19)

Sources:

  • Jennifer Martin Donohue, WNDS-TV (South Carolina GOP expectations and turnout predictions)
  • Polls cited in the article (showing Bush with a four-to-one lead in South Carolina)
  • Lindsey Graham's statement in support of John McCain
  • Jack Valenti's quote on mail-in ballots.

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