The Unseen Threat to the Agri-Food Sector: Depopulation

The agri-food sector has successfully adapted to the immediate impacts of climate change, but another looming threat, depopulation, is quietly forming on the horizon. As more than 60 countries face declining populations and fertility rates, the sector is compelled to pivot from relying on volume growth to delivering nutrition, quality, and personalized value. This shift requires a deeper understanding of demographic shifts, health trends, and evolving consumer expectations.

Key Takeaways:

• Global population growth is slowing, and in many places, reversing, with more than 60 countries experiencing population decline.
• Fertility rates are falling below replacement levels across much of Europe, East Asia, and parts of Latin America, with countries like Japan, Italy, and South Korea already experiencing population shrinkage.
• Aging populations and lower birth rates are creating labour shortages, weakening tax bases, and reshaping national economies, even in countries that have used immigration to offset domestic fertility declines.
• Canada's fertility rate continues to drop, and without robust immigration, our population would be contracting; food insecurity is a growing issue, with one in eight Canadian households experiencing food insecurity in 2024.
• Disease-related malnutrition affects up to one in three Canadian children and one in two adults admitted to hospital, creating a costly and dangerous feedback loop.
• The industry must pivot from selling calories to delivering nutrition, quality, and personalized value, recognizing the increasingly heterogeneous nature of the market and evolving consumer expectations.
• Public policy will need to evolve, expanding the focus on food affordability and access to include nutrition security, a concept that emphasizes consistent access to food that promotes health and prevents disease.
• The transition from a growth-centric model to a resilience- and quality-focused one won't be easy, but failure to adapt will risk building a food system out of sync with demographic and nutritional realities.

Statistics:

• Over 120 countries are expected to have declining or stable populations between 2023 and 2050 (Source: United Nations).
• Canada's fertility rate continues to drop, from 1.74 children per woman in 2020 to 1.69 in 2022 (Source: StatCan).
• One in eight Canadian households experienced food insecurity in 2024 (Source: StatCan).
• Up to 1 in 3 Canadian children and 1 in 2 adults admitted to hospital are malnourished, creating a costly and dangerous feedback loop.

Sources:

• United Nations - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2022)
• Statistics Canada (2022) - Fertility Rates by Age
• Statistics Canada (2024) - Food Insecurity Research Series - Data tables