Thinning Down Army Presence in J&K Amid US and Domestic Pressure

The Indian government is considering thinning out the Army presence in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) due to intense pressure from the US and the massive anti-government protests across the state following the rape and murder of two teenagers in Shopian. This move is part of a larger effort to address the improving security situation in the valley, with a 30% drop in violent incidents and a significant decrease in infiltration attempts. The Army, however, is cautioning against any hasty decision, emphasizing that the right time for such a move would be when militancy is reduced to almost zero on a sustained basis and the civil police are ready to take over.

Key Takeaways:

• The Indian government is considering thinning out the Army presence in J&K due to US and domestic pressure.
• The number of violent incidents in J&K has dropped by 30% to 186, and the number of infiltrations has decreased significantly, with only six terrorists entering the valley in May compared to 40 last year.
• The proposal involves moving the Army out of major cities in J&K and parts of the valley, allowing the state police or the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) to take charge.
• The Army is warning against any hasty decision, emphasizing the need for sustained reductions in militancy and the readiness of the civil police to take over.
• The three-stage process proposed includes thinning Army presence, reducing CRPF personnel, and finally, giving the state police a hand in security matters.
• The CRPF has been accused of mishandling the Shopian rape and murder case, highlighting concerns about the paramilitary force's effectiveness.
• Recent events have shown a decrease in militancy and violence, with the number of incidents dropping by 30% and infiltration attempts significantly decreasing.

Statistics:

• The number of violent incidents has dropped by 30% to 186 as of May 31 (compared to 270 last year).
• The number of infiltrations has decreased significantly, with only six terrorists entering the valley in May (compared to 40 last year).
• The three-stage process proposed for thinning Army presence includes reducing paramilitary forces and giving the state police a hand in security matters.

Sources:

• "US pressure is a result of president Barack Obama's AfPak policy, which is focussed against terrorists holed up in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Washington's message is that India should respond to Pakistan moving several battalions from its border with India to Afghanistan and for its operations against the Taliban."
• "We have to respond to the improving situation in Kashmir," said a source in the intelligence community.
• "The CRPF has not been very impressive. Look at the Shopian rape and murder. The women were possibly CRPF informers who were killed by militants. But once their death became public, the CRPF mishandled it," said an official.
• "The right time (to reduce troops) would be when militancy is reduced to almost zero on a sustained basis and not just for a few days, and when the civil police are ready to take over. Today, that isn't the case," said a senior officer.
• Recent events in J&K, including the Kargil War, Agra Summit, and Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service.