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Mayors

Toronto Mayoral Poll Suggests Olivia Chow in the Lead, John Tory a Strong Contender

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow would be the leading contender if she was seeking re-election now, but former Mayor John Tory would pose a significant threat if he were to attempt a political comeback, according to a new opinion poll. The survey, conducted by Forum Research, asked 1,000 adults across Toronto about their support for four potential mayoral candidates ahead of the October 2026 election.

Key Takeaways:

  • Olivia Chow is the leading contender with 36% of the vote, followed by John Tory with 30%, Beaches-East York Coun. Brad Bradford with 18%, and former city councillor Ana Bailão with 8%.
  • In a head-to-head matchup, John Tory holds a slight advantage over Chow, with 48% support compared to her 37%.
  • Brad Bradford is tied with Chow in a head-to-head matchup, with 42% support for each.
  • Ana Bailão lags behind Chow in a head-to-head matchup, with 34% support compared to her 40%.
  • Chow's support is strongest with younger voters and those in the old city of Toronto, East York, Scarborough, and York.
  • Almost 70% of Chow's previous voters said they would back her again.
  • Tory's support is strong with middle-aged voters and those in Etobicoke and North York.

Statistics:

  • 36% of respondents voted for Olivia Chow, followed by 30% for John Tory, 18% for Brad Bradford, and 8% for Ana Bailão.
  • 13% of respondents were undecided.
  • The margin of error for the interactive voice response telephone survey is plus or minus four percentage points 19 times out of 20.
  • 70% of Chow's previous voters said they would back her again.
  • 42% of respondents support Brad Bradfords, compared to 40% for Olivia Chow.
  • In a head-to-head matchup between Chow and Tory, Tory received 48% support, compared to Chow's 37%.

Sources:

  • David Rider, "New opinion poll suggests Olivia Chow leads, but John Tory is a real threat if he's seeking a comeback", The Star, [no date mentioned]
  • Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research president, quoted in David Rider, "New opinion poll suggests Olivia Chow leads, but John Tory is a real threat if he's seeking a comeback", The Star, [no date mentioned]

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