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Prime ministers

Tory Leadership Election: A Calculated Gamble by John Major

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

As John Major's leadership faces a test, conservative party rules have created a pathway for a challenger to come forward, with at least 140 Tory MPs required to force a second ballot. The election has been brought forward, in part, due to disagreements within the party over Europe, with John Redwood, a Euro-sceptic, facing off against Major. This is not the first time Major's leadership has been threatened; Margaret Thatcher's influence has long been a factor in his premiership, and her calls for a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty have undermined his authority.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Conservative Party rules allow for a challenge to the leader every November, with 10% of Tory MPs required to demand a ballot.
  • At least 140 Tory MPs will need to desert John Major to force a second ballot in the leadership election.
  • John Redwood, a Euro-sceptic, is Major's opponent in the leadership election, with disagreements over Europe a major factor.
  • Margaret Thatcher's influence has been a persistent factor in John Major's premiership, with her calls for a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty contributing to his declining authority.
  • John Major's supporters argue that his leadership is being unfairly blamed for the decline in Conservative Party support, pointing to the highly visible disagreement within the party as a major factor.
  • Norman Lamont, whom Major sacked as Chancellor in May 1993, called him "in office, but not in power" after his resignation.

Statistics:

  • 10% of Tory MPs required to demand a ballot for a leadership challenge (Source: Conservative Party rules).
  • At least 140 Tory MPs required to force a second ballot in the leadership election (Source: Conservative Party rules).
  • 1993: the year the Maastricht Treaty was ratified and Margaret Thatcher called for a referendum (Source: article text).
  • 1993: the year Conservative Party support began to decline, with several bruising defeats in by-elections, local elections, and European parliament elections (Source: article text).

Sources:

  • [Conservative Party rules].
  • [Margaret Thatcher's memoirs].
  • [The Guardian's coverage of the leadership contest].
  • [Related articles in eG: British Political System (1-3, Oct 23 1990 and 9-11, May 17 1994); Monarchy (1-3, Feb 4 1992)].

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