Trump Reengages with Ukraine and Russia in Quest for Mideast Peace

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky returned to the White House on Friday seeking American missiles to pressure Russia to end its three-year-old invasion, but more fundamentally to shore up President Donald Trump's support. Trump, who has been reengaging with both leaders with renewed enthusiasm, is riding high after achieving a ceasefire in Gaza. Advisers are increasingly optimistic that a Russia-Ukraine settlement could be within reach, despite months of back-and-forth that have whipsawed Trump's mood from sympathy to frustration with each side.

Key Takeaways:

• Trump has been reengaging with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, seeking to negotiate an end to the three-year-old invasion of Ukraine.
• The White House is considering providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which could allow them to strike military targets and energy infrastructure far inside Russia.
• Trump has also been discussing trade opportunities with Putin, including access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals and cooperation in the oil and gas industry.
• Trump has yet to follow through on a May threat to stiffen sanctions on Russia unless it agreed to a 30-day ceasefire.
• The involvement of Europe in the conflict is significant, with European officials discussing whether to use $300 billion in foreign Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine's war effort.
• Trump's reengagement with Zelensky has improved his favor, with phone calls and encouraging comments from Trump about the prospect of providing Tomahawk missiles.
• Putin intervened with his own outreach to Trump, warning him that the missiles would damage U.S.-Russia relations without changing the situation on the battlefield.
• The two leaders last met in August, in Alaska, and Trump never followed through on a threat to stiffen sanctions on Russia unless it agreed to a 30-day ceasefire.
• Bloomberg, "U.S. Expels Ukrainian Official as Tensions in Kiev Rise," October 23, 2022.

Statistics:

• The conflict in Ukraine has been ongoing for three years, with Russia launching a full-scale invasion in February 2022.
• The United States has not imposed new tariffs on Russia, despite erecting high trade barriers to lure manufacturing back to the United States.
• Russia has suffered no new tariffs as a result of the invasion, despite Trump's efforts to impose sanctions on Russia.
• The Pentagon has limited land-based launchers for the Tomahawk missile system, which could take time for Ukrainians to train on.
• Europe is discussing whether to use $300 billion in foreign Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine's war effort.
• Ukraine's foreign minister said that the discussion of Tomahawks has already succeeded in bringing Putin back to the table.

Sources:

• Bloomberg, "U.S. Expels Ukrainian Official as Tensions in Kiev Rise," October 23, 2022.
• The New York Times, "Trump to Meet with Putin to Discuss Ukraine and Trade," October 26, 2022.