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Trump Surges in Republican Field, Becomes Competitive in General Election

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Donald Trump has rapidly become the frontrunner in the Republican presidential field, with a recent CNN/ORC poll showing him leading the pack in Iowa and New Hampshire. This surge has also made him competitive in the general election, with a narrow 6-point lead over Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Trump's gains among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, men, and white voters have significantly narrowed the gap between him and Clinton.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump leads Clinton by 6 points in the general election, with 51% of registered voters supporting Clinton and 45% supporting Trump.
  • Clinton's lead is largely due to her advantage among women voters, with 60% supporting her and 37% supporting Trump.
  • Trump has made significant gains among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with 79% supporting him in the latest poll, up from 67% in July.
  • White voters also favor Trump, with 55% supporting him, up from 50% in July.
  • Clinton leads four Republican contenders, including Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, by 6 points each among registered voters.
  • Positive impressions of Clinton have faded, with 44% of adults holding a favorable view of her and 53% an unfavorable one, her most negative favorability rating since March 2001.

Statistics:

  • 56% of adults say Hillary Clinton did something wrong by using a personal email account and server while serving as secretary of state, up from 51% in March.
  • 39% of adults say she did not do anything wrong, down from 45% in March.
  • 57% of Democrats say Clinton did not do anything wrong, down from 71% in March.
  • 37% of independents say she did not do anything wrong, down from 45% in March.
  • Clinton leads Trump and Walker each by 6 points, and Bush by 9 points and Fiorina by 10 points among registered voters.
  • Clinton maintains a 6-point lead over Trump among women voters, with 60% supporting Clinton and 37% supporting Trump.
  • The largest gender gap in the poll is in the match-up between Clinton and Trump, with women favoring Clinton by 23 points and men favoring Trump by 11 points.

Sources:

  • CNN/ORC Poll, August 13-16, among 1,001 adults
  • Clinton Foundation website
  • Trump campaign website

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