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Trump's Clash with California Governor Over LA Protests Has Potential to Influence Next Presidential Race

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

In a bid to put differences aside, Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California, had promised to work with Donald Trump following his re-election in 2024. However, the recent deployment of the national guard and hundreds of marines to quell demonstrations in Los Angeles in protest of immigration raids has put an end to the truce. Newsom has made it clear that he believes Trump is destroying democracy and acting like a dictator, with the actions he has taken.

Key Takeaways:

  • The deployment of the national guard without the approval of a state governor is a rare occurrence, with the last instance being in March 1965 when Lyndon B. Johnson deployed the guard in Alabama without the approval of Governor George Wallace.
  • Trump's decision to send in the guard has been criticized by experts, who argue that it is an overreach of power and a disregard for democratic norms.
  • The use of the national guard for domestic law enforcement purposes is prohibited by the 1878 Posse Comitatus Act, which Trump has worked around or violated.
  • Public opinion is divided on Trump's handling of the protests, with 45% of Americans disapproving of the protesters in Los Angeles, while 47% and 45% disapprove of the deployment of the marines and the national guard, respectively.
  • The Economist poll shows that 53% of Americans believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, while 35% believe it is going in the right direction.
  • The issue of immigration has exposed rifts within the Democratic party, with some arguing for more criticism of Trump's policies, while others have sought to steer clear of the topic.
  • Newsom is trying to capitalize on the moment to win the long-term political battle against Trump, despite the risks involved.
  • If Trump keeps pushing the limits, it could lead to even more public backlash against the president's actions and further burnish Newsom's reputation.

Statistics:

  • 61% of Californians believe that Trump's second term would be worse than his first.
  • 45% of Americans disapprove of the protests in Los Angeles.
  • 47% and 45% of Americans disapprove of the deployment of the marines and the national guard, respectively.
  • 53% of Americans believe the US is heading in the wrong direction, according to the Economist poll.
  • 54% of citizens agree with Trump's immigration policies, according to a recent CBS News poll.
  • 42% believe that Trump's immigration raids are making the country safer.
  • Immigrants are 60% less likely to commit crimes in the US, compared to the rest of the population.
  • The US has seen a corresponding decrease in crime as immigration waves have increased.

Sources:

  • The Conversation -- UK -- By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex
  • Trump's use of the national guard against LA protesters defies all precedents (The Conversation -- UK)
  • The Economist poll (The Economist)
  • CBS News poll (CBS News)
  • YouGov poll (YouGov)
  • Posse Comitatus Act (1878)

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