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Trump, Donald

Trump's Gamble on Iran: A High-Risk Attempt to Secure Legacy

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As President Trump took a significant risk by joining Israel in striking Iran, he wagered that the Islamic Republic and its proxies in the Middle East have been weakened, making it a limited and successful intervention. This strategic move aims to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, a goal that has eluded the US foreign policy establishment for decades. However, the consequences of this action are far-reaching and potentially catastrophic, risking the security of the US and Israel while also jeopardizing a president who had pledged not to draw America into new global conflicts.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US president's primary wager is that Iran and its proxies have been weakened, making his intervention both limited and successful.
  • Trump's goal is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, a long-standing objective of the US foreign policy establishment.
  • The move carries significant risks, including inflaming the Middle East, jeopardizing US and Israeli security, and backfiring on the president.
  • Experts caution that the road ahead is uncertain, and the US president and his allies cannot claim victory until Tehran's full response is clear.
  • Iran's network across the region remains operationally lethal and can sow more instability and terror if it chooses to do so.
  • The White House has stepped up public warnings to Tehran, with President Trump saying that Iran has two weeks to bow to US demands.
  • Republican lawmakers have praised Trump's move, while Democrats have expressed outrage over his failure to inform Congress about his plans.
  • The US president has "a lot of margin politically" to keep fighting, especially if Iran retaliates, according to Aaron David Miller, a former US state department negotiator.

Statistics:

  • 53% of Trump's own supporters are opposed to the US joining Israel in striking Iran (YouGov/Economist poll).
  • Trump has repeatedly stated his preference for diplomacy, his desire to make a deal, and his desire to be judged by the wars the United States does not enter into.
  • The US has entered direct conflict with Iran without a serious articulation to the American people about the intelligence picture and without serious engagement with Congress about authorising the use of military force (Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defence).
  • The price of oil has surged over $100 a barrel, following the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
  • Iran's military commander Qassem Soleimani was assassinated by the US in 2020, in a high-stakes military operation.
  • The US has identified a list of potential targets in Iran, which may be subject to further strikes if the conflict escalates.

Sources:

  • Byline: JAMES POLITI AND LAUREN FEDOR - NEW YORK STEFF CHAVEZ - WASHINGTON
  • Dana Stroul, former deputy assistant secretary of defence for the Middle East, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
  • Brian Katulis, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a Washington think-tank.
  • Aaron David Miller, a former US state department negotiator in the Middle East now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • YouGov/Economist poll.
  • Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
  • Middle East Institute.
  • Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

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