Trump's Iran Strike Raises Questions About Taiwan Policy

President Trump's decision to attack Iran's nuclear facilities after earlier opposing military action has Chinese leaders questioning what he might risk for Taiwan. This move introduces a new complication for Beijing, which is already trying to fathom how Trump will handle conflict over Taiwan. Chinese officials and experts will now likely assess the Iran strikes for new insights into Trump's approach to Taiwan, a situation that has been a wild card for China's leaders. Beijing's actions have included stepped-up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond.

Key Takeaways:

• Chinese leaders are assessing the implications of Trump's attack on Iran for Taiwan policy, given Trump's mercurial style and willingness to use force.
• The Iran strikes suggest that when Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy, which may raise concerns for Beijing about potential action on Taiwan.
• China has stepped up military activity and coast guard operations around Taiwan in recent years, seeking to test how Taiwan and the United States and its allies respond, and also trying to wear down the Taiwanese military.
• Beijing is now probing Washington for signs of Trump's red lines, asking pointed questions about what he would do if China took action against Taiwan.
• Chinese leaders believe that their military is more formidable than the weakened Iranian forces that Israeli and U.S. forces overcame, and that they are steeled for the risk of a crisis over Taiwan.
• The U.S. administration has signaled support for Taiwan, while also urging it to rapidly increase military spending, but Trump's administration has also introduced uncertainty and unpredictability.
• Some experts in Taiwan praised the Trump strike on Iran as an indirect message to Beijing, but when it comes to Taiwan, Trump has been deliberately vague about whether the United States would defend the island if China attacked.
• Trump himself has questioned how effective U.S. intervention could be against China's forces, which are much closer to Taiwan.

Statistics:

• China sends military aircraft near Taiwan nearly every day, sometimes in the dozens (see source 1).
• In May, Beijing deployed as many as 70 warships off the eastern coast of China (see source 2).
• China has about 3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a fast-expanding navy (see source 3).
• Amy Chang Chien contributed reporting.

Sources:

• Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, citing a recent phone call between Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump.
• Xin Qiang, the director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
• Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research.
• Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Washington.
• John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump's former national security adviser.
• Amanda Hsiao, the China director for the Eurasia Group.
• Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.