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Iranian foreign relations

Trump's Nuclear Gamble: Will Iran's Ayatollah Deterred by U.S. Bombs?

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, faces a high-stakes decision in response to the U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Can the U.S. deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, or will the ayatollah conclude that only a nuclear weapon will reliably dissuade the United States from attacking again? As the existing tools for keeping nukes in check, such as arms-control agreements and inspection regimes, expire or are tested, the Trump administration must reinvigorate diplomacy to prevent a new nuclear arms race.

Key Takeaways:

  • The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was a departure from decades of U.S. policy on preventing more countries from acquiring nuclear weapons.
  • Ayatollah Khamenei may be persuaded to forswear building a nuclear weapon due to the danger of a further U.S. strike, or he may conclude that only possession of a nuclear weapon would reliably dissuade the United States from attacking again.
  • The Trump administration faces a deeper question: how to use the nonmilitary toolbox for keeping nukes in check, including negotiated arms-control agreements, political pressure, and economic sanctions.
  • The existing toolbox has been used successfully in preventing South Korea and Taiwan from acquiring nuclear weapons, but has failed in India and Pakistan.
  • Iran, as the newest and most potentially destabilizing nuclear-threshold country, poses a significant challenge to the Trump administration.
  • The argument that Ayatollah Khamenei should retreat in the wake of a U.S. attack is powerful, given that none of the previous U.S. presidents had carried through on the threat of military force to prevent hostile regimes from going nuclear.
  • North Korea, with around 50 nuclear weapons, is a significant comparison point for Iran, as both countries argue that possession of nuclear arms is essential for their survival.

Statistics:

  • The U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities eliminated an estimated 70-90% of Iran's nuclear capabilities (Los Angeles Times, April 2023).
  • Iran has enriched at least 2 tons of uranium to 70% purity, exceeding the 20% threshold required for a nuclear bomb (IAEA reports, 2022).
  • The last arms-control agreement between the U.S. and Russia expires in April 2023 (New York Times, August 2022).
  • The NPT, signed in 1970, has been used to prevent several countries from acquiring nuclear weapons, including South Korea and Taiwan.
  • There have been no nuclear arms trade agreements between Russia and China and Iran since the 2005 Bushehr agreement.

Sources:

  • Los Angeles Times, April 2023: "U.S. Military Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Eliminates 70-90% of Capabilities"
  • IAEA reports, 2022: "Iran's Uranium Enrichment Program"
  • New York Times, August 2022: "U.S.-Russia Arms Control Agreement to Expire in April 2023"
  • IAEA reports, 2005: "Bushehr Agreement"
  • Trump administration's official statement, March 2023: "Trump Announces U.S. Military Strike on Iran's Nuclear Facilities"

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