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Iranian foreign relations

Trump's Reckless Gamble in the Middle East

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The US bombing of Iran will not destroy the country's nuclear capabilities or willingness to develop a nuclear weapon, as President Donald Trump claims. In fact, the huge attack ordered by Trump will likely inflame and exacerbate the ongoing warfare between Israel and Iran, leading to a potential uncontrolled conflagration in the region. The US bases in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the region, home to about 40,000 American troops, are now considered potential targets for retaliation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The US attack on Iran was based on disputed, probably faulty intelligence, distorted for political reasons, and has been proven wrong by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and US intelligence experts.
  • The US has gone to war in the Middle East on the back of a lie, with unclear and uncertain objectives, and no clear exit strategy or plan for what happens next.
  • Iran will not go away, and its leaders have vowed to continue its civil nuclear program, despite Trump's claims that the attack was aimed at eliminating the "unproven threat" of a nuclear Iran.
  • The US has committed to military action and cannot walk away now, which may lead to a more terrible reckoning, short- and long-term, including a potential global oil shock and markets meltdown.
  • The Iranian government has warned that no options are off the table in terms of retaliation, including hitting US bases, and has also insisted that Iran will reconstitute and continue its nuclear program.
  • The attack may lead to a further destabilization of the region, potentially leading to regime collapse in Iran, or a decision to acquire a nuclear bomb for self-defence.

Statistics:

  • The US has about 40,000 troops stationed in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the region, which are now considered potential targets for retaliation.
  • Iran has warned that it will continue its civilian nuclear program, despite US claims that the attack aimed to eliminate the unproven threat of a nuclear Iran.
  • The US has committed to military action in the region, with no clear exit strategy or plan for what happens next.
  • The potential consequences of the US attack may include a global oil shock and markets meltdown.

Sources:

  • Simon Tisdall, "Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenei -- three angry old men who could get us all killed", The Guardian.
  • Simon Tisdall, "The warmongers were wrong about Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. Now watch them make the same mistake about Iran", The Guardian.
  • The Guardian, "US bombers target Iranian targets, with potential for larger scale operation."
  • Reuters, "Iran says it will hit US targets if Trump launches more attacks."

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