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Governors

Trump's Shadow Looms Large Over New Jersey Governor's Race

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The highly anticipated New Jersey governor's race, pitting Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill against Republican Jack Ciattarelli, has become a critical battleground in the nation's politics. As the nation's only other governor's race, in Virginia, appears to be less competitive, the stakes in New Jersey have never been higher. Sherrill and Ciattarelli have been sparring over issues such as electricity rates and affordable housing, but it is the Republican candidate's ties to former President Donald Trump that are shaping the contours of this contest. Ciattarelli has been criticized for his close alignment with Trump, which has made it challenging for him to appeal to a broader electorate in a blue-leaning state.

Key Takeaways:

  • The New Jersey governor's race is expected to be extremely close, with both candidates banking on the Trump factor to sway voters.
  • Mikie Sherrill is painting Jack Ciattarelli as a Trump "lackey" and warning voters that he would serve as a point man for Trump's MAGA agenda in New Jersey if elected.
  • Ciattarelli has countered the attack by depicting Sherrill as a disciple and descendant of Gov. Phil Murphy, suggesting that the Democratic Party has been in majority power in Trenton for nearly two decades and has allowed the state to deteriorate.
  • A June internal poll by Ciattarelli's campaign showed that a majority of voters believed the state was heading in the wrong direction, with rising electric rates and property taxes being major concerns.
  • The Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind poll in July found that 92% of Democrats disapproved of Trump, making it clear that Sherrill's anti-Trump rhetoric is likely to resonate with her base.
  • Ciattarelli's past as a Never Trumper may come back to haunt him, particularly in a state where only 37% of likely voters approve of Trump, while 55% disapprove.
  • Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, cautions that voters will tune out anti-Trump rants unless Sherrill can clearly demonstrate how Trump's policies harm New Jersey.

Statistics:

  • The Democratic Party enjoys an advantage of 800,000 in registered voters in New Jersey.
  • A recent Eagleton Center for Public Interest poll at Rutgers University found that 53% of Republican voters "strongly support" the MAGA movement and another 32% "somewhat" support it.
  • The same poll also found that 37% of likely voters in New Jersey approve of Trump, while 55% disapprove.
  • In the primary, Ciattarelli won Trump's endorsement and went on to win the election in June with ease.

Sources:

  • NJ.com, June: "Ciattarelli says he doesn't disagree with Trump on any issues"
  • Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind poll, July: "92% of Democrats disapprove of Trump"
  • Eagleton Center for Public Interest poll, Rutgers University: "53% of Republican voters 'strongly support' the MAGA movement"
  • The Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University: "People feel like, 'We've been there, we've done that. We've heard the anti-Trump stuff before'"

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