Trump's Tariffs: A Potential Campaign Issue for Democrats in 2026 and 2028

A recent piece in the New York Times incorrectly suggests that Trump's tariffs are making money and will be hard to quit due to their potential revenue of close to $400 billion a year. In reality, this substantial sum can be used as a campaign issue by Democrats in 2026 and 2028, promising a huge tax cut to ordinary workers by rolling back the tariffs.

Key Takeaways:

• The Trump tariffs are expected to raise close to $400 billion a year, with an average of over $3,000 per household annually, making it a significant campaign issue for Democrats.
• Democrats can promise a large tax cut to working and middle-class families by rolling back the tariffs, with the option to offset revenue loss by reversing Trump's tax cuts to the rich.
• The Democrats will have an advantage in this route as Trump's tariffs will already be in effect, and many Democrats, especially union members, have supported tariffs to bring back manufacturing jobs.
• Historically, manufacturing jobs were high paying due to unionization, but the manufacturing sector is now only slightly more unionized than the rest of the private sector (8.0% vs. 6.0% in the private sector).
• Workers will be able to see that the tariffs are not an effective route for creating good-paying jobs, making it easier for Democrats to roll them back.
• Reducing tariffs will lower prices, which will be a welcome change for consumers and can be used as a campaign promise by Democrats.
• The Democrats can also use the expected inflation caused by the tariffs as a campaign issue, promising to lower prices and improve economic conditions.
• Reducing or eliminating the Trump tariffs may raise the deficit, but this is unlikely to be a decisive factor in future elections, as the track record shows that voters do not punish parties for large deficits.

Sources:

• (about:blank) "Trump's Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit." (exact date not provided)
• (https://cepr.net/publications/manufacturing-jobs-unions-made-them-good-not-the-factories/)
• (https://cepr.net/publications/my-six-favorite-untruths-about-the-biden-harris-economy/)