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Ex-presidents

Trump's Tariffs Give Lula da Silva Unlikely Boost in Brazil's Presidential Election

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Brazilians are grappling with rising food prices and domestic policy stumbles, yet President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's approval ratings have risen to their highest level in months, thanks to a shift in public opinion driven by President Trump's tariff threats. Mr. Lula's stance against Mr. Trump's bully tactics has resonated with the public, going viral online and drawing praise in the press. New polls show that 43 to 50 percent of Brazilians approved of his performance, up three to five percentage points since May.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Trump's threat of 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian exports has reshuffled Brazil's political landscape, giving President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva an unexpected boost.
  • Mr. Lula's approval ratings have risen to their highest level in months, with 43 to 50 percent of Brazilians approving of his performance, up three to five percentage points since May.
  • The shift in public opinion is attributed to President Trump's tariff threats, which have given Mr. Lula a clear message: he will not back down to a bully.
  • Mr. Lula has signaled he is open to negotiating with Mr. Trump, but will not budge on the case against former president Jair Bolsonaro, who faces criminal charges of plotting a coup.
  • The new tariffs would take effect on Aug. 1, shortly before Mr. Bolsonaro is expected to stand trial on charges of orchestrating a vast conspiracy to overturn the vote.
  • Mr. Lula has promised to respond to U.S. tariffs with levies on American products, which could deal a painful economic shock to Brazil.
  • Historically, Brazilians have blamed those in power for economic turmoil, but Mr. Lula may escape voter fury by holding Mr. Bolsonaro accountable for the tariffs.
  • Mr. Bolsonaro says he plans to run again next year, despite a court bar on holding office until 2030 for sowing baseless doubts about election fraud.

Statistics:

  • 43 to 50 percent of Brazilians approve of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's performance, up three to five percentage points since May.
  • The United States had a $7.4 billion trade surplus with Brazil last year on about $92 billion in trade.
  • Brazil's presidential election is scheduled to take place next year, with President Lula likely to run for a fourth term.
  • The new tariffs would take effect on Aug. 1, which could worsen inflation and push up prices of food, medicine, and fuel.
  • A court has barred Mr. Bolsonaro from holding office until 2030 for sowing baseless doubts about election fraud.

Sources:

  • Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (no date provided)
  • Rosana Pinheiro-Machado, a professor at University College Dublin (no date provided)
  • Andrei Roman, chief executive of AtlasIntel (no date provided)
  • The New York Times (no date provided)

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