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Political parties

Turkey's Elections: A Shift in the Country's Political Landscape

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The results of Turkey's recent elections are a stark departure from the party's 12-year dominance. For the first time, the Turkish president's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has suffered a major electoral setback, dropping below 40% of votes. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and its leader Selahattin Demirtas have made significant gains, obtaining 13% of votes and surpassing the electoral threshold of 10%. This historic outcome has marked the first time a pro-Kurdish party has won representation in the National Assembly.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Justice and Development Party (AKP) has suffered its first major electoral setback in 12 years, failing to surpass 40% of votes and falling short of a working parliamentary majority.
  • The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has made significant gains, obtaining 13% of votes and clearing the electoral threshold of 10%, marking the first time a pro-Kurdish party has won representation in the National Assembly.
  • The HDP's progressive electoral agenda has brought together Turkey's Kurdish minority and a nationwide share of voters opposed to the AKP's increasingly authoritarian approach.
  • The far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has increased its share of votes, securing 16% of preferences and positioning itself as a key player in the post-electoral phase.
  • The AKP may attempt to form a minority government, form a fragile coalition government, or hand over incumbency to other parties.
  • A potential AKP-MHP alliance could be challenging for the AKP, as it would be uncharted territory for the party.
  • The HDP's increased presence in the parliament may bring the Kurdish issue to the forefront of Turkish politics, potentially sparking a more incisive debate over Turkey's role in Syria.
  • A potential coalition government including the MNP could compromise the dialogue with the PKK and reduce Turkey's involvement in fighting against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil).
  • The EU has welcomed the elections as a "clear sign of strength of Turkish democracy" and an opportunity to further strengthen the EU-Turkey relationship.

Statistics:

  • The AKP's share of votes dropped from 49.8% in 2011 to below 40% in the recent elections.
  • The HDP secured 13% of votes and exceeded the electoral threshold of 10% for the first time.
  • The Nationalist Movement Party (MNP) obtained 16% of preferences.
  • The number of seats required for a working parliamentary majority is 276 out of 550 in the National Assembly.
  • The number of seats held by the AKP in the National Assembly has decreased.

Sources:

  • Cumhuriyet newspaper
  • Francesco F. Milan, Teaching Fellow at the Defence Studies Department, King's College London
  • Turkish presidential election results (date not specified)

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