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Mediation

Turkiye's Historic Peace Settlement: A New Era of Regional Stability and Prosperity

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Turkiye has emerged from a decades-long struggle with terrorism, marked by the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in May 2025. This breakthrough, achieved through an unprecedented pace of peacebuilding facilitated by Turkiye's democratic institutions, has far-reaching implications for regional stability, energy security, and economic prosperity. As the country embarks on a new chapter, key energy corridors and transportation routes are expected to flourish, backed by European and NATO allies.

Key Takeaways:

  • The PKK's dissolution marks a defining moment in Turkiye's history, ending armed conflict and opening a transformation with potential to reshape the region's future.
  • Nearly 50,000 lives were lost and 1.1 million people were displaced during the decades-long campaign of violence from the early 1980s to the 2020s.
  • Official assessments estimate the economic cost of terrorism at $1.8 trillion in direct counterterrorism spending, with an additional $3 trillion in lost growth, investment, tourism, and infrastructure damage.
  • The elimination of terrorism-related costs could trigger a substantial rise in per capita income in the southeast over the medium term.
  • A $14 bn program of 198 projects through 2028 aims to create around 570,000 jobs, focusing on agriculture, tourism, and private investment.
  • Turkiye's conflict settlement is the first to be conducted entirely through a nation's democratic institutions, with the parliament leading the initiative.
  • The dissolution of the PKK, recognized as a terrorist organization by both the EU and the US, is expected to strengthen Turkiye's democracy and accelerate its accession process.
  • The Middle Corridor, which already serves as a reliable land bridge, is projected to exceed 6 million tonnes of cargo in 2025.
  • The Development Road project is expected to carry 40 million tonnes of cargo annually by 2050, providing a faster, more cost-effective alternative to the Suez Canal.
  • Israel's continued support for the YPG/SDF jeopardizes the dissolution process and fuels armed separatism along Turkiye's borders.

Statistics:

  • Nearly 50,000 lives were lost due to terrorism in Turkiye.
  • 1.1 million people were displaced during the decades-long campaign of violence.
  • Official assessments estimate the economic cost of terrorism at $1.8 trillion.
  • An additional $3 trillion in lost growth, investment, tourism, and infrastructure damage are estimated.
  • A $14 bn program of 198 projects through 2028 aims to create around 570,000 jobs.
  • 40 million tonnes of cargo are expected to be carried annually by the Development Road project by 2050.
  • 6 million tonnes of cargo are projected to be carried by the Middle Corridor in 2025.
  • 16 billion cubic meters of natural gas are delivered annually to Europe through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP).
  • 31.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas are delivered annually to southeastern Europe through TurkStream.
  • 1.2 million barrels per day of oil are carried through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

Sources:

  • "For nearly half a century, terrorism has cast a shadow over Turkiye's political, social and economic life."
  • "The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in Syria, Iraq and Iran have destabilised the region through separatist violence."
  • "Professor Ira William Zartman noted in his 'ripeness theory,' peacemaking becomes possible at the 'ripe moment'."
  • "Turkiye's geographic position at the intersection of Europe, Asia and the Middle East makes its stability crucial for global energy security."
  • "The region surrounding Turkiye contains about 65 percent of the world's proven oil reserves and 45 percent of its natural gas reserves."
  • "The European Union welcomed the PKK's dissolution as a significant opportunity, expressing its readiness to support the peace process."
  • "High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, called it 'one of the rare pieces of good news from the region'."
  • "The disbandment of the PKK, recognised as a terrorist organisation by both the EU and the United States, along with its proxies in Syria, is expected to strengthen Turkiye's democracy and accelerate the country's accession process."

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