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Exports

U.S. Wheat Exports Poised for Strongest Recovery in Five Years

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

As the 2025/26 marketing year begins, U.S. wheat exports are expected to reach their highest level in five years, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. This rebound underscores the importance of foreign market access for wheat farm profitability, despite ongoing risks from price pressure, weather volatility, and unresolved trade barriers. While the overall agricultural sector has slipped into a widening trade deficit, wheat remains one of the few U.S. commodities that consistently generates a trade surplus.

Key Takeaways:

  • Between January and April of this year, the United States imported $78.2 billion worth of agricultural products, the highest value on record, with U.S. agricultural exports totaling just $58.5 billion, resulting in a record-setting agricultural trade deficit of nearly $20 billion in just the first four months.
  • U.S. wheat exports are projected to reach their highest level in five years during the 2025/26 marketing year, with 850 million to 875 million bushels projected by USDA's August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
  • For every $1 of agricultural exports, over $2 is generated in the U.S. economy, with the wheat trade surplus supporting farm economy stability.
  • Maintaining and expanding access to international markets is essential for wheat to continue offsetting broader agricultural trade deficits.
  • U.S. wheat production is concentrated in the Great Plains, Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Southeast, with five classes of U.S. wheat serving different markets and regions.
  • Historical trends show shrinking wheat acreage and higher yields, with U.S. farmers harvesting 38.5 million acres of wheat in 2024/25, producing 1.97 billion bushels, and projected to harvest 36.6 million acres in 2025/26 with approximately 1.93 billion bushels.

Sources:

  • American Farm Bureau Federation
  • U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
  • World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

Statistics:

  • $78.2 billion: Highest value of agricultural imports in the United States between January and April of this year.
  • $58.5 billion: Total U.S. agricultural exports between January and April of this year.
  • 850 million to 875 million bushels: Projected U.S. wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year.
  • 18%: Share of U.S. wheat exports that went to Mexico in 2024.
  • 12%: Share of U.S. wheat exports that went to the Philippines in 2024.
  • $1.05 billion: Value of U.S. wheat exports to Mexico in 2024.
  • $728 million: Value of U.S. wheat exports to the Philippines in 2024.
  • 1.97 billion bushels: U.S. wheat production in 2024/25.
  • 36.6 million acres: Projected wheat harvested acres in the United States in 2025/26.
  • 1.93 billion bushels: Projected U.S. wheat production in 2025/26.

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