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UK Statistics Authority Investigates Prime Minister's Claims on Chagos Islands Deal

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

The UK Statistics Authority has been asked to investigate Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's claims about the cost of giving away the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The Prime Minister's office has been accused of "statistical sleight of hand" for using a complex calculation method to claim the deal would cost £3.4 billion over 99 years, when independent analysis suggests the true cost could be over £30 billion. The Tories have written to the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority, Sir Robert Chote, accusing Sir Keir of misusing statistics and breaching the code of practice on statistics.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Prime Minister's office has been accused of "statistical sleight of hand" for using a complex calculation method to claim the deal would cost £3.4 billion over 99 years, when independent analysis suggests the true cost could be over £30 billion.
  • The calculation method used by the Government Actuary's Department involves applying a "social time preference rate" to factor in the value society attaches to present as opposed to future consumption, and an estimated rate of inflation over time.
  • The figure cited by the Prime Minister is a representation of "social time preference" rather than a direct cost to taxpayers, and has been criticized for being used as a statistical sleight of hand to hide the true cost to taxpayers.
  • The Prime Minister's office has been accused of failing to publish the statistical methodology used to calculate the figure, which appears to be in breach of the code of practice on statistics.
  • The UK Statistics Authority has been asked to investigate whether the Prime Minister's figure follows the code of practice on statistics to ensure public confidence in public statistics is upheld.
  • The deal will give up British sovereignty over the Chagos Islands and see the UK rent the Diego Garcia military base for 99 years, with a likely cost estimate of £30 billion or more.
  • The government has signed an agreement to pay for infrastructure in Mauritius and support native people of the Chagos Islands, which is estimated to cost over £1 billion.
  • Former defence secretary Penny Mordaunt has said the deal would help China's ambitions, while former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith has called it a "terrible agreement" that will jeopardize future operations.

Statistics:

  • The true cost of the deal is likely to be over £30 billion in cash terms, including a century of lease payments and additional schemes to support native people of the Chagos Islands and pay for infrastructure in Mauritius.
  • The cash-terms cost is estimated to be around £30 billion, compared to the £10 billion estimated by the Prime Minister over 99 years.
  • The Government Actuary's Department has signed off on the figures used by the Prime Minister's office.
  • The deal will see the UK rent the Diego Garcia military base for 99 years, with a likely annual cost of £101 million.
  • The UK will also contribute over £1 billion to development funding in Mauritius.

Sources:

  • The Telegraph
  • James Cartlidge, shadow defence secretary
  • Sir Robert Chote, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority
  • The Government Actuary's Department
  • Penny Mordaunt, former defence secretary
  • Sir Iain Duncan Smith, former Tory leader
  • Downing Street source

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