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Prime ministers

Ukraine on Brink of War as Russia Increases Tensions in the Region

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

Ukrainian government officials report continuous shelling by Russian separatists in the east of Ukraine, while British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warns of "the biggest war in Europe since 1945." As the Beijing Olympics come to a close, world leaders are watching to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin does next. NPR's Frank Langfitt is in Kyiv, providing an update on the situation.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian officials report ongoing shelling by Russian-backed forces in the east of Ukraine, with two Ukrainian soldiers killed and two civilians reported dead, which Ukraine denies.
  • The Ukrainian government has instructed its troops not to shoot back, fearing Russia will use any escalation as an excuse to invade.
  • Despite Russian claims of no plans to invade, the largest troop buildup in Europe since the end of the Cold War has been observed.
  • Russian joint military exercises in Belarus were scheduled to end on Saturday but will continue due to increased fighting in the east.
  • Russia's naval drills in the Black Sea have raised concerns about a possible blockade of Ukrainian ports, with maritime traffic in the Black Sea currently unaffected.
  • Analysts believe Russia could try to topple the Ukrainian government and install a more Putin-allied regime, but most Ukrainians strongly oppose Putin.
  • National police in Kyiv have broken up plans for a large rally of paid protesters seeking to stoke violence and destabilize the regime.
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stated that President Biden believes intelligence suggests Russian forces could surround Kyiv, describing any invasion as a "colossal mistake."
  • Only about 1 in 5 Ukrainians believe a full-scale invasion is likely, with most Ukrainians opposed to Putin's regime.

Statistics:

  • 2 Ukrainian soldiers killed in recent shelling
  • 2 civilians reported dead, which Ukraine denies responsibility for
  • 1 in 5 Ukrainians believe a full-scale invasion is likely
  • Largest troop buildup in Europe since the end of the Cold War observed
  • 20-30% of Kyiv residents believe a full-scale invasion is imminent
  • 80% of Ukrainians strongly oppose Putin's regime

Sources:

  • Ukrainian government officials
  • British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
  • NPR's Frank Langfitt
  • Real-time mapping of maritime traffic in the Black Sea
  • Reports from national police in Kyiv
  • Anonymous Ukrainian analysts
  • BBC reporting on Johnson's statement

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