UN Fails to Plan for East Timor's Future Amidst Uncertainty

The United Nations' (UN) efforts to ensure a peaceful self-determination process in East Timor are commendable, but the organization has given little thought to the post-ballot transition, risking a potential plunge into civil war. The pro-Indonesian militia groups' recent aggressive activities, including the stoning of a UN office, underscore this concern. The UN's security mandate in East Timor expires on August 31, and without a well-designed transition plan, the situation may spiral out of control. The Indonesian Army's ambiguous role in maintaining security, the lack of a reassuring UN presence, and the absence of agreed procedures for transferring Indonesian control to a new East Timorese government all contribute to the volatility of the situation.

Key Takeaways:

• The UN has devoted significant resources to ensuring a peaceful self-determination process in East Timor but has not given sufficient consideration to the post-ballot transition.
• Recent activities by pro-Indonesian militia groups, including the stoning of a newly established UN office in Maliana, indicate a real possibility of civil war.
• Indonesia is solely responsible for security in the period leading up to the UN-sponsored ballot but its role in the post-ballot transition is unclear.
• The UN mandate in East Timor expires on August 31, raising concerns about who will rein in the anti-independence militias if the vote goes against them.
• Indonesia's military support for the militias and the lack of agreed procedures for transferring control to a new East Timorese government exacerbate the situation.
• The writer emphasizes the need for a pro-active and acceptable UN transition plan, incorporating a security plan, military dialogue, and a long-term UN security commitment.

Statistics:

• The UN has been involved in the East Timor self-determination process for several years.
• Indonesia's security forces have being accused of supporting anti-independence militias.
• Over 30 years the Indonesian economy has experienced its worst recession.
• The United Nations Security Council must decide whether to extend the UN mandate in East Timor.
• East Timor has been under Indonesian control since 1976.
• Pro-Indonesian militia groups in East Timor have been responsible for aggressive activities.

Sources:

• The writer's contribution to the International Herald Tribune.
• Australian National University's Strategic and Defense Studies Center in Canberra.
• Data on Indonesia's economy.