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Soldiers

UN Forces in Bosnia Hopeful After Sarajevo Operation Shows Promise

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The United Nations peacekeeping troops in Bosnia, led by Lieutenant General Sir Michael Rose, have expressed cautious optimism after the successful operation in Sarajevo led to the withdrawal of Bosnian Serb guns and tanks. According to General Rose, the approach used in Sarajevo could be a model for other parts of the country, provided more peacekeepers are sent to the region. However, senior UN officials warn that it is premature to conclude that the lessons of Sarajevo will apply universally, as differences in terrain and local grievances may hinder the effectiveness of the operation in other areas.

Key Takeaways:

  • The operation in Sarajevo has brought a temporary halt to the violence, but it is unclear whether this will have a lasting impact on the larger conflict.
  • The UN and NATO are cautious about applying the lessons of Sarajevo to other parts of the country, citing differences in terrain and local grievances.
  • The presence of UN peacekeepers, including Russian troops, has raised concerns among Bosnian Muslims that the city may be partitioned, a long-held Serbian ambition.
  • The Bosnian Serbs have put some of their guns under UN control, but can redeploy the rest to other areas, potentially for further offensives.
  • Analysts predict that the Serbs may now focus on consolidating territory around Muslim pockets in eastern Bosnia, while the Muslims may want to reinforce their positions in other areas.
  • The successful operation in Sarajevo has brought international policy to a watershed moment, with the US, Russia, and Europe agreeing to meet in Bonn to discuss the next step in the peace process.

Statistics:

  • 37 people killed in Mostar in the first nine days of February
  • 30% of Croatian territory controlled by Serbian rebels behind UN lines
  • 30+ percent of guns and tanks pulled back under UN control in Sarajevo
  • 25,000+ artillery shells fired by Bosnian Serbs on Sarajevo in January 1994 (according to a UN report)
  • 10-20% of UN peacekeepers may be required to control areas like Srebrenica and Gorazde to prevent further violence

Sources:

  • The New York Times, "Bosnia and Herzegovina: NATO Air Strikes Press Bosnian Serbs to Yield", February 1994.
  • The New York Times, "Notebook: Bosnia; A Model for Future Efforts?", February 1994.
  • Reuters, "Bosnia Violence Halts After UN Deadline", February 1994.

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