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Epidemics

Uncertain Economic Recovery Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Strategic Insights

— 1 min read

The COVID-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark on the global economy, hindering recovery in many regions. Despite the acceleration of vaccination efforts and government stimulus measures, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have both lowered their forecasts for global economic growth, citing the slow pace of vaccination, continued COVID-19 infections, and sustained lockdown measures. The economic recovery is expected to be slow, with significant gaps in economic output and employment, particularly in emerging and developing economies with low vaccination coverage.

Key Takeaways:

  • The OECD has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 from 5.7% to 5.6%, a decrease of 0.1% from its previous forecast in May.
  • The ADB has also lowered its forecast for economic growth in developing countries in Asia, from 7.3% to 7.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to its forecast in April.
  • The growth outlook for the US has been downgraded by the OECD from 6.9% to 6% in 2021.
  • The Eurozone economy is forecast to grow by 5.3% in 2021, with each member country experiencing different growth rates.
  • Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are forecast to have higher growth rates, while economies like Australia, the UK, and Japan are expected to be slower.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic has delayed poverty reduction in developing economies by at least two years, with the ADB projecting regional economic growth in 2021 and 2022.
  • The outbreak of the Delta variant has reduced the momentum of the economic recovery and increased pressure on global supply chains and costs.

Statistics:

  • 5.7% projected global economic growth in 2021 (OECD, May forecast) vs. 5.6% (OECD, revised forecast)
  • 7.3% forecast economic growth in developing countries in Asia (ADB, April forecast) vs. 7.1% (ADB, revised forecast)
  • 6.9% projected US economic growth in 2021 (OECD, May forecast) vs. 6% (OECD, revised forecast)
  • 5.3% projected Eurozone economic growth in 2021
  • Poverty reduction in developing economies delayed by at least two years due to the pandemic (ADB)
  • Regional economic growth projected in 2021 and 2022 (ADB)
  • Increased pressure on global supply chains and costs due to the Delta variant (ADB)

Sources:

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  • Contify.com (distributor of MIL OSI Asia Pacific News)

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