Uncertainty Surrounds Health Care Bill as Senate Takes Center Stage

The health care bill's future remains unclear, with the Senate setting the pace and the House facing logistical and political challenges. Just 86 days before the midterm elections, the Senate's majority leader, Senator George J. Mitchell of Maine, must build and sustain a centrist majority for a health care bill. Meanwhile, the House's liberal Democrats are concerned that the bill will be watered down, pleasing moderate and conservative Democrats instead. The trimming of the bill in the Senate is a double-edged sword, delighting moderates but dismaying liberals in the House.

Key Takeaways:

• The Senate has become the primary engine on health care legislation, with the House sidelined by logistical and political problems.
• Senator George J. Mitchell of Maine must build and sustain a centrist majority for a health care bill in the Senate.
• The House's liberal Democrats are concerned that the bill will be watered down, pleasing moderate and conservative Democrats instead.
• The trimming of the bill in the Senate is a double-edged sword, delighting moderates but dismaying liberals in the House.
• Representative Richard A. Gephardt's health care bill may undergo substantial revision before it comes to the floor.
• The House Democratic leadership may face painful choices, such as asking party members to support a measure that the Senate has already shown to be unacceptable.
• Democratic strategists in the House consider it unlikely to make up for lost liberal votes with the votes of moderate Republicans due to the House's bitter partisanship.

Statistics:

• 86 days until the midterm elections.
• 100 House Democrats support a single-payer bill, a Canadian-style system of government health insurance financed by taxes.
• 100 people in the House Democratic caucus support a single-payer bill, larger than any moderate or conservative bloc in the House.
• The Senate's Majority Leader must build and sustain a centrist majority for a health care bill.
• The House's liberal Democrats are concerned that the bill will be watered down, pleasing moderate and conservative Democrats instead.

Sources:

• The New York Times, "Predicting the Course of the Health Care Bill Has Become a Minor Industry in Nation's Capital"
• NBC News, "Meet the Press"
• ABC News, "This Week"
• The White House, statement by Hillary Rodham Clinton
• Congressional Budget Office, analysis