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Coronaviruses

Undercounted Care Home Deaths in England: Similar to Scottish Mortality Rate

Strategic Insights

— 2 min read

Scotland's COVID-19 care home death rate is significantly higher than England's, with a recent study suggesting that English care home deaths are being grossly underreported. While Scotland's more elderly population may contribute to a higher death rate, experts point out that the English mortality rate is likely being miscounted due to the transfer of care home residents to hospitals, where they often succumb to the virus.

Key Takeaways:

  • According to the latest National Records for Scotland data, 45% of COVID-19 deaths registered to date in Scotland were in care homes, compared to 24% in England and Wales.
  • The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports that 8,312 deaths in care homes in England and Wales were associated with COVID-19 by May 1, which represents only a quarter of all deaths associated with the virus during that period.
  • When considering deaths that occurred in hospitals after care home residents were transferred, the cumulative fatalities in England and Wales relating to care home residents was approximately 12,526 between March 2 and May 1, which is 40% of all COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales.
  • A study by the London School of Economics suggests that English care home deaths are being underreported, with a calculated total excess mortality of 22,000 among care home residents by May 1, which is 54% of all excess mortality in England and Wales.
  • Scotland has a higher prevalence of Type 2 diabetes than the UK as a whole, which may contribute to a higher COVID-19 fatality rate.
  • COVID-19 deaths are disproportionately high among the elderly, and Scotland has a higher proportion of elderly residents than England.

Statistics:

  • 45% of COVID-19 deaths registered in Scotland were in care homes (National Records for Scotland, to May 10, 2020).
  • 24% of COVID-19 deaths registered in England and Wales were in care homes (Office of National Statistics, to May 1, 2020).
  • 8,312 deaths in care homes in England and Wales were associated with COVID-19 by May 1 (Office of National Statistics, to May 1, 2020).
  • 12,526 cumulative fatalities in England and Wales relating to care home residents between March 2 and May 1 (Office of National Statistics, to May 1, 2020).
  • 22,000 calculated total excess mortality among care home residents in England and Wales by May 1 (London School of Economics, study published May 12, 2020).
  • 54% of all excess mortality in England and Wales is attributed to care home residents (London School of Economics, study published May 12, 2020).
  • 19.1% of Scotland's population is of pensionable age, compared to 18.4% in England (ONS data, cited in the article).
  • 18.4% of England's population is of pensionable age (ONS data, cited in the article).

Sources:

  • National Records for Scotland, to May 10, 2020
  • Office of National Statistics, to May 1, 2020
  • London School of Economics, study published May 12, 2020 (available on LSE website)

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